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Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets

Who’s Buying Bonds With Me?

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

For the first time in my career, I’m buying bonds.

It has less to do with positioning defensively and more to do with making a call on lower interest rates.

But what it really comes down to, more than anything, is the chart pattern.

Bond funds are completing bearish-to-bullish reversals for the first time in years. 

This is the same exact pattern we’ve gone back to time and again this cycle… and every cycle, really.

Rounding bottoms are some of the most reliable patterns we have as technicians.

And we’re seeing them across the board in bond funds right now.

Let’s dive in and talk about some of them.

[Read more…]

The Dust Has Settled. What’s Next for Bonds?

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From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Here’s what happened last week…

A few bad actors used open profits from highly leveraged positions to purchase other assets.

When those highly leveraged positions turned against them – ripping their faces off – margin calls went unanswered, leading to a lack of liquidity.

Bonds ripped, stocks dipped, and credit spreads blew out. 

Now that the dust is settling, let’s review a few takeaways from last week’s volatility and consider what may lie ahead.

[Read more…]

Bonds Are Ready to Rip 

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From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Will the Fed finally cut interest rates?

We can’t say for sure… 

All that matters is what the market thinks. And following Powell’s testimony this week, investors are increasing their September rate-cut bets.

Let’s review a few of our recent bond trades, as US treasuries could rip in the coming weeks.

[Read more…]

HY Bonds Will Confirm the Tech Rally

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From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Nasdaq is ripping to new all-time highs. NVIDIA’s market cap is surpassing the three-trillion-dollar mark. And US T-bonds are registering another buy signal. 

But the market’s still a mess. 

Just look at yesterday’s intraday reversal—a bullish reaction to inflation data in the morning, followed by a bearish reaction to the FOMC meeting in the afternoon. Investors are still trying to make sense of the mid-week hoopla.

Friday’s close (the most important data point of the week) will reveal critical information regarding market conviction heading into the weekend.

Meanwhile, you can track high-yield bonds for risk-on confirmation.

[Read more…]

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