The Nifty Financial Services Index continues to show relative weakness.
In this post, we’re going to update our risk management levels, targets, and discuss the components within the index that are showing the most relative strength and weakness.
This Market Is Breaking Down To A New Frontier
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
We have been writing a lot about risk-appetite lately as we’re constantly trying to gauge the “animal spirits” at work in the markets. Right now we’re seeing a lack of participation from risk-assets such as Small-Caps, Commodities, and the more cyclical sectors as well as a risk-off theme in many of our intermarket ratios.
We’ve covered the US plenty already, so this post will focus on what we’re seeing from risk-assets in Equity Markets abroad.
This week’s Mystery Chart was an inverted chart of the Frontier Markets ETF (FM). Thanks to everyone for participating. You were pretty much ALL buyers this week, which means you were actually selling Frontier Markets against their prior all-time lows.
[Chart Of The Week] What Did The Cyclicals Say To The Spooz?
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Yesterday I wrote a post about deteriorating market internals. I discussed breadth divergences as well as the lack of confirmation of the S&P 500’s recent highs from many important sectors and indexes.
In this post, we’re going to focus specifically on the Large-Cap Sector SPDRs that failed to make higher highs and are showing early signs of cracking. To no surprise, these are some of the most cyclical areas of the market including Industrials (XLI), Financials (XLF), Materials (XLB), and Energy (XLE).
This speaks to the lack of risk-appetite we continue to see not only within equities but across all asset classes right now.
The Reliance Industries Chart Investors Need To See
Reliance Industries is in the news this week due to an investment from Facebook in JioMart.
Regardless of the fundamental merits or impact of this deal, let’s analyze the charts and see how the market’s digesting this information.
[Premium] Updating Our Bond ETF Levels & Playing Devil’s Advocate
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Bonds are on the move once again, so we’re updating our risk management levels and targets.
Additionally, we’ll revisit the ratios to analyze which credit quality and duration characteristics remain in favor.
[Options] Golden Trigger
In the most recent ASC Monthly Conference call, JC laid out a case for what would get him bullish in Anglogold $AU: a break above $24.00.
We’re getting that today.
It’s time to get involved. [Read more…]
Beware Of These Divergences
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
We don’t need to dig too far into the internals to know breadth has been deteriorating since last week even as the S&P 500 was making new incremental highs. Most large-cap sectors failed to make new highs with the S&P as well as many other major indexes, including small-caps, mid-caps, and Transports.
We’ll talk about this more below. First, here is a new breadth indicator we’re looking at using the Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (AVWAP).
Stocks Fail At 2015 Highs, Volatility To Continue
Over the last few weeks we’ve been outlining what conditions would warrant us getting more aggressive on either the long or short side, and last Wednesday we got our signal to get short again.
After the indexes pressed to new marginal highs late in the week, we’ve finally gotten some downside follow-through to confirm the weakness we were looking for.
Let’s review several key aspects of our bearish thesis and a few ways we’re taking advantage of the volatility.
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