From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Bond investors must feel like it’s their lucky day.
Long-duration bonds are reaching new multi-month highs!
It finally looks as if a tactical bounce is underway for these safe havens-turned-risk assets…
The Dollar Bends Down Low
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The dollar has gone from slinging cheese to lobbing cookies.
Sellers finally got ahold of the US Dollar Index $DXY on Tuesday, sending it on its steepest single-day decline since October 2022.
Recall what followed for the dollar…
Silver Must Join the Party
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Miami is pure gold.
It sways to its own beat, enticing and intoxicating even the insular traveler.
Incidentally, I was engulfed by the city’s rhythm as I attended a family wedding last weekend.
And it was wild!
I danced with family and friends and sipped bubbles at sunset in Key Biscayne straight through to the early morning hours along South Beach.
But this old dog would never have made it to dawn without my wife’s crazy cousins.
They displayed an appetite for reckless abandon that gold longs to witness from its own crazy cousin…
No One Wants To Buy Bonds
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
What a wild broad-market reversal yesterday!
Powell supposedly stated the obvious or blurted out what was on everyone’s mind. I don’t know. I haven’t watched the video or reviewed yesterday’s treasury auction.
And I won’t.
I’m more interested in the “what,” not the “why,” as the former has proven far more valuable for navigating markets.
Nevertheless, the message is clear: no one wants to buy bonds.
It makes sense to me…
The Dollar Retains Command
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US Dollar Index $DXY is still dealing like an old-school ace on the mound.
I don’t care what stock market bulls or technology investors want to believe.
The buck has been lights out since July.
And just because it found itself in a bit of trouble last week doesn’t mean it can’t retire the side…
Alamos Gold Breaks Out
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Precious metals bulls have plenty to be excited about.
Major headwinds have abated as rallies cool in real yields and the dollar.
Gold futures are trading above their former commodity supercycle peak.
And the yellow metal is printing new all-time highs priced in every significant currency except the US dollar.
Even mining stock stocks are breaking out!
Commodities Hang Tough Despite Falling Interest Rates
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The tide is turning for commodities now that the dollar and rates are falling.
Crude oil is relinquishing its leadership role. Gold and silver are catching a bid. And copper is digging in at former support.
But it’s not only base and precious metals bouncing off critical levels…
Bonds Respond to Powell’s Remarks
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The market barely reacted Wednesday afternoon following Powell’s remarks, cooking up a big, fat nothing burger for investors.
Market participants took the decision to leave rates untouched in stride. After all, the pause in the hiking cycle was the expected outcome. Since investors already pegged the Fed, the valuable information hung on Powell’s words or forward guidance.
Yet judging by today’s performance, it appears the market just needed a little time to marinate.
Yesterday’s failed reaction has given way to a delayed response as long-duration bonds scream higher.
But before we get ahead of ourselves and rush out to buy the bond market bottom, let’s check the charts…
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