Ian Culley, Author at All Star Charts Page

Breakout Alert: Canadian Dollar Hits Six-Month High

October 4, 2023 by Ian Culley

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The most important chart in the world is back in action!

A rising US dollar is generating increased selling pressure for risk assets and global currencies.

US Treasury bonds, stock indexes, and even commodities are catching lower.

Yet it’s nothing new for the top components of the US Dollar Index $DXY (the euro leads at 57.6%, followed by the yen at 13.6% and the pound at 11.9%).

New lows and broken support have become standard for these currencies.

But King Dollar’s command is spreading to the more resilient pockets of the forex market, as fresh breakouts mount. [Read more…]

Gold Bugs Lose Support

October 2, 2023 by Ian Culley

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious metals no longer deserve the benefit of the doubt.

They no longer represent an opportunity cost, either.

No, gold and crew carry downside risk – nothing else!

What changed since last week?

Gold futures undercut a critical level of interest…

[Read more…]

Bottom-Fishing for Wheat

September 29, 2023 by Ian Culley

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I need to set the record straight.

Earlier in spring, I wrote a note highlighting wheat’s tendency to lead crude oil at key inflection points.

While this statement is mostly true, it needs clarification.

Chicago wheat does have a tendency to lead crude oil at significant market tops. But crude leads at critical troughs.

[Read more…]

Rising Rates Are the Market’s Golden Thread

September 28, 2023 by Ian Culley

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stocks and bonds look vulnerable right now.

US T-bonds are sliding to fresh decade lows. The S&P 500 completed a three-month top last week. And the Nasdaq 100 is on the verge of doing the same.

Those summer highs are receding into the collective memory bank, replaced by new lows and growing unease. Sellers are out in full force.

But instead of allowing the near-term selling pressure and overall choppy conditions to throw us off balance, let’s focus on the one underlying trend tying this market together…

[Read more…]

The Dollar-Swiss Franc Snaps Back

September 26, 2023 by Ian Culley

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

King Dollar is reclaiming its throne.

The US Dollar Index $DXY hit a new year-to-date high on Monday, punishing other global currencies.

The euro undercut its June pivot lows. The pound dropped for the fourth consecutive session. And the yen is well within reach of its lowest level since the summer of 1990.

Other major currencies don’t stand a chance against USD strength.

If you can’t beat them, join them!

The Swiss franc might be the next to succumb to this old proverb as it prepares to bend the knee.

[Read more…]

What Does the Dollar Rally Mean for Gold?

September 25, 2023 by Ian Culley

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY has posted its tenth week consecutive in the green.

And with the dollar off to a solid start Monday morning, an eleventh looks promising.

This is excellent news for dollar bulls.

But it’s a gloomy prospect for risk assets, especially precious metals… [Read more…]

Silver Futures Defy Expectations

September 22, 2023 by Ian Culley

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Markets are adjusting to rising rates as investors weigh the possibility of “higher for longer.”

Bonds are breaking down to fresh lows. The major US stock market indexes are chopping within a range (perfectly normal from a seasonal and cyclical perspective). And commodities are kicking back into gear.

All of these intermarket pieces fall neatly into a dynamic puzzle. Nothing appears out of place.

But the best information comes from markets presenting atypical behavior or defying expectations.

One commodity is doing just that as we head into the weekend…

[Read more…]