Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by JC
Months and months are going by with little to no progress at all in the major U.S. Stock Market Indexes.
Just look at the returns by sector since the beginning of March.
The leaders have been Utilities, Energy and Consumer Staples.
The biggest losers are the investors who’ve owned Technology and Consumer Discretionary.
Here, see for yourself: [Read more…]
by JC
I love a stock that people hate for reasons that have nothing to do with the stock.
We’ve seen it so many times before and I promise that we’ll see it again.
These days the most amount of anger is being pointed towards Trump Media.
Dig this:
This checks off all 3 boxes.
I love that! [Read more…]
by JC
In yesterday’s note we talked about the lack of progress in most U.S. Stocks and Indexes over the past several months.
It’s been a frustrating market for some traders.
That’s why we’ve been doing this instead.
Look at the Median stock right now, stuck at the exact same price it was way back in December.
We’re now in May: [Read more…]
by JC
How’s this messy market treating you?
Are you happy the market is a mess? Or do you find it frustrating?
Keep in mind, the S&P500 is still at the same price it was 2 months ago.
Both the Nasdaq100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are still at the same prices they were back in February.
We’re almost half way through May.
The Technology Index, which is the largest component of the S&P500 (30%) and has the largest weighting in the Nasdaq100 (50%), is still where it was back in January.
Again we’re half way through May!
Meanwhile, don’t forget about the Small-cap Russell2000 that’s hilariously still stuck below where it was way back in December.
The Consumer Discretionary Index and Dow Jones Transportation Average are also down for the year.
That’s the market we’re in.
Some people keep pretending that this year is just like last year.
But I cheated. I actually looked at the data. So I know better. [Read more…]
by JC
Here are the returns of a series of country ETFs since October.
Notice how the ones from the U.S. are further down the list than you might expect.
At the top you’ve got Argentina, Peru, Colombia and Mexico: [Read more…]
by JC
The Small-cap Indexes in America have had a tough time for a while now.
Since the start of 2022, both of these Small-cap Indexes have actually produced a negative return.
The S&P600 Small-cap Index requires companies to have a track record of earnings in order to be included in the index.
The Russell2000 lets anyone in. It doesn’t matter how much money you lose, if your market cap is above $300 Million, then you’re in.
Both of them have been terrible.
by JC
It’s amazing what price action can do to change sentiment.
We went from frothy optimism just a couple of months ago, to a much more pessimistic environment for investors.
This table below is a great summary of the different gauges we look at to measure sentiment and what they’ve done over the past month.
The blue diamonds are the current readings and the gray triangles represent where these were a month ago. [Read more…]
by JC
What’s on your mind these days?
I’ll tell you what I’m thinking about.
I’m used to a market where stocks struggle when the US Dollar are US rates are rising. And that’s what we’ve seen all year.
And while the data certainly points to a market of stocks that have been grinding mostly sideways over the past few months, stocks haven’t done nearly as bad as you’d think, considering just how strong the Dollar has been and how much rates have risen.
So the question for me is whether these consolidations are going to resolve higher or lower?
And what the implications might be….
A lower resolution here could be a massive tailwind for stocks.
Remember, during Election years, the market tends to bottom in May ahead of a very strong summer, particularly when there is an incumbent candidate.
If these resolutions are, in fact, to the downside, then that’s exactly what I would expect to see happen: [Read more…]
