Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
Bear Markets are environments where a majority of stocks are falling in price for a prolonged period of time.
Sometimes you’ll hear lies about a 20% decline defining such things, but that’s just bullshit.
The number 20 is a completely arbitrary number that has absolutely no meaning. Thinking it does is foolish. Why 20? Why not 19.5? or 20.2?
There is no reason. They’re just lies.
If you ever hear anyone say that, “A bear market is when it falls 20%”, you know it’s because they’re in the entertainment business, not in the truth business.
Stay away from those kinds of people. They’re not here to help.
It’s their job to distract, it’s our job to ignore.
In reality, expansions in the new low lists are things you’ll find near the beginning of market declines. You’ll see spikes in these lists that haven’t been seen in years.
Here’s what this looks like coming into the week. It’s still a ghost town: [Read more…]
We don’t need to make a whole thing about it. But I did just want to take a moment to thank everyone for the last 10 years.
I wrote my first blog post on this site in March of 2011. That was 10 years ago this month.
It’s been a pretty unbelievable ride ever since.
I don’t even know where to start. Hopefully one day I can write a book about it and tell you the whole story.
There are so many people to thank that we’d be here forever. [Read more…]
In the latest episode of The Money Game, Phil and I talk about the old cliché, ‘Everything happens for a reason’.
It’s funny because it doesn’t. Not everything happens for a reason. What’s the reason?
It’s hard for humans to accept the element of randomness. Sure, good things can happen after a tough breakup or losing your job. Like you can meet your future wife or start a successful business, all after what seemed like a negative event in your life. But connecting the 2 dots is silly.
Now, it’s perfectly natural for us as humans to want to do that, but it doesn’t make it right.
We inherently want to learn, and how I see, the best ways to learn are from experiences. Some of the most important lessons I’ve learned came the hard way, for sure. And I can think back to those moments and I’m now thankful for them. But they certainly didn’t happen specifically so I could use that information to my advantage today. They were just events that happened, that fortunately I learned from.
I think to believe that everything does happen for a reason makes you incredibly self-centered. You are a tiny spec of nothing in this massive spinning universe. To think that events all around you are happening for your benefit, or for some made up destiny of yours, seems irresponsible.
Good things happen all the time in bad scenarios. Bad things can also come as a consequence of positive events. For example, the global pandemic was horrible. Many people died, businesses were shut down and so many people have suffered, particularly mentally. BUT, in many cases, families have gotten closer together, a lot of people have gotten in better shape, with more time on their hands to exercise. Many of my friends are thriving in this environment.
That’s life. Things happen. It doesn’t have to be for a reason.
So what’s the prescription? Phil says to just live your life. Be a good person. Enjoy yourself.
We’re here. So let’s make the best of it!
[Read more…]
One of the charts that stood out the most to me during last week’s Conference Call was the relative strength in Communications. While Tech and Discretionary corrected over the prior month, Communications marched on:
Most arguments about the market would never even take place if investors would just acknowledge that they have different time horizons.
“JC, what do you think of Amazon here?”
“JC, what’s your favorite stock right now?”
“JC, should we buy this pullback?”
These are all completely irrelevant questions if you haven’t first identified your time horizon. [Read more…]
