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All Star Charts

Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets

Welcome to the Best 3 Months of the Year!

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Welcome to the Best 3 month period of the year!

They always make a big fuss about “Sell in May and Go Away”, but rarely do you they tell you to “Remember to Buy in November”. Or as my friend Jeff Hirsch, of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, likes to put it, “Buy in October and Get Yourself Sober”.

All these sayings derive from the fact that since 1950, every single dollar made in the Dow Jones Industrial Average has come between the months of November through April. In fact, had you bought the Dow on the first trading day in May every year since 1950 and sold on Halloween, you would actually have negative return (or close to it, anyway. I believe the past couple of years put it in the black).

Now, within the “Best 6 Months” of the year, you have an even sweeter spot: November – January.

The way I see it, if stocks couldn’t fall during what is historically the worst time of the year, imagine how they’ll do during a time where they’re actually supposed to go up!

Here’s how stocks did during the “Worst 6 months” of 2020: [Read more…]

Filed Under: ASC

Biotechnology Breaks Out Of Historic Base

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When I was going through my charts this week, this is one of the ones that stood out the most. I see Biotechnology, on both an equally-weighted and cap-weighted basis, breaking out of major bases.

More specifically, if you look at the Cap-weighted Index Fund $IBB, we’re talking about half a decade of no progress. It looks to me like this is all changing now: [Read more…]

[Video] Big Trends Monthly w/ Josh Brown (EP.4)

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Welcome to Episode 4 of the JC & Josh Brown show that he likes to call, “Big Trends Monthly”. This is where we discuss a handful of the most important monthly charts that stood out during my review.

I’m always preaching how this is probably the most valuable part of my entire process: Monthly Charts! It’s only something I have to do 12 times a year and might take me 30-45 minutes each month. This forces us to take a step back and gives us no choice but to identify the direction of primary trends.

Josh Brown is one of the most widely followed financial advisors in the country, and he appreciates these monthly candles as much as anyone else I know. So we’re now doing a monthly show about it. You can catch up on last month’s episode here.

Check out latest show where we discuss the rotation into Emerging Markets, Chinese Tech Stocks, What’s next for Gold and Bitcoin, and a sneak peak at this month’s Young Aristocrats list. [Read more…]

[Podcast] Technical Analysis Radio Interviews: Hedge Fund Manager, Mark Dow

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Mark Dow has been a guest on this podcast more times than anyone else for a good reason. Selfishly I always enjoy chatting with him. His perspective is fascinating to me because he does such brilliant job of combining price behavior with sentiment analysis and the global macro intermarket backdrop.

Mark worked for the U.S. Treasury Department in charge of Emerging Markets in the early 90s before ultimately running money for a Global Macro Hedge Fund in New York City. So he has a lot of opinions on economics and politics, but he’s great at not letting those things get in the way of his price behavior and sentiment analysis. He’s figured out how to separate them but also use his expertise to his advantage. That’s not any task.

I loved this conversation because we talked about how institutional investors are positioned coming into the U.S. election, how currencies and interest rates around the world are being affected, and in turn how they are affecting other asset classes. I ask him about Bitcoin and Gold and which one will win that battle. Of course, the US Dollar and Emerging Markets were part of the discussion (we can’t help ourselves whenever we get together), but we talk about how EM is now being driven by Technology and no longer the Natural Resources of the past.

Make sure you’re following @mark_dow on Twitter.

This was fun. Give it a listen!

[Read more…]

[Premium] Details For November Monthly Strategy Session

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These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday November 2nd @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday evening: [Read more…]

Filed Under: ASC

[Podcast] My Interview With Jack Schwager – Author of Market Wizards

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I’ve done over 115 Podcast episodes and I don’t remember being this excited to interview someone. I’ve read all the Jack Schwager books and some of them multiple times. I know traders who regularly read these chapters as part of the mental training.

Think about it, Jack has interviewed the greatest traders in history. All of them. It’s incredible. And you know what strategies he uses to trade his own personal money? Technical Analysis.

He’s interviewed all of the best traders for his Market Wizards books. And he says about half of them choose their market direction using Technical Analysis. But almost all of them have some sort of Technical component for risk management. This concept of Risk Management is the one common denominator between all of the most successful Traders.

Jack also pokes fun at the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which you know always brings a smile to my face. He discusses some of the success of these traders and how their consistent returns over such long periods of time completely dismiss what he refers to as the Deficient Market Hypothesis.

Don’t walk to listen to this one. Run! [Read more…]

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