I’ve been following the work Willie Delwiche for years. As both a CFA and CMT Charterholder, I think it helps him really put things in perspective for the Advisors he works with at RW Baird. I really enjoyed the conversation we had about the markets and his process. Willie incorporates a number of breadth and sentiment measures that I’ve always been a fan of. He helps the Investment Advisors at the firm work with their clients and manages several portfolios as well. In this podcast episode we discuss a number of different things from Interest Rates to Gardening. It was fun to get to know Willie a bit more! [Read more…]
Video: Making The Bear Case For US Stocks
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I make the bear case for US Stocks. I think we’ve been pretty clear about the fact that we believe stocks resolve this consolidation since 2018 higher, not lower. But I always think it’s important to take the other side and consider the alternative. What will the market environment most likely look like if we’re wrong, and we should be selling stocks rather than buying them. I think we brought up some good points here. [Read more…]
[Premium India] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording September 2019
This is the recording from the live September 2019 Conference Call for Members of the Allstarcharts India! Before getting into individual stock ideas in India, we’re going to first start with the global macro perspective. Once we identify the direction of the underlying trends from a structural and broader view, then we’ll dive into the NIFTY Indexes on both longer-term and short-term timeframe. We want to look at Large-caps, Small-caps and everything in between before getting into the Sector and Industries themselves like Energy, Banks and Pharma.
This is when we finally break things down to the individual stock scenario with identified risk vs reward opportunities. That is what this is all about – aligning ourselves in the direction of the underlying trend while at the same time identifying where the risk is to make sure the potential reward is skewed exponentially in our favor. You will find that throughout this process we discuss Momentum, Fibonacci and Relative Strength. I encourage you to check out the Education Section so you know exactly where I’m coming from when you hear me mention these tools.
Here is the video in full:
Consumer Staples To Signal A New Bull Market!
We look at a lot of intermarket relationships and try to analyze the same things, but from different perspectives. It’s all part of the weight of the evidence approach that we so often preach. Today we’re focusing in on the relative strength (or weakness) in Consumer Staples as a heads up for the next move in the US Stock Market.
Consumer Staples are funny bunch. Think about it like this: regardless of how bad the economy might get, as a society we’re still going to brush our teeth, wash our dishes, smoke cigarettes and drink beers. Those are Consumer Staples. They tend to be less volatile and underperform when stocks in general are going higher, but outperform when stocks are selling off, for the same reasons.
This chart here really shows this powerful relationship. Normally when we look at relative strength, we like to put the asset or sector in question as the numerator. But to really see the high positive correlation, we flipped the ratio below so the S&P500 is the numerator and Consumer Staples are the denominator. So if the chart at the bottom is going up, Staples are underperforming, and if it’s going down, Staples are outperforming. [Read more…]
A Few Weekend Thoughts
Weekends are great to just take a step back and see what is actually going on. It’s really easy to get caught up in the day to day noise. I talk about the power of Monthly Chart Reviews. This is a similar process, just done more frequently and timeframes are shorter-term. But the taking a step back part follows the same philosophy.
Here are a few things that I’m thinking about this weekend: [Read more…]
The Bear Case For Stocks in Q4
I’ve been in the camp that this 20-month consolidation in the U.S. Stock Market is just that, a consolidation within an ongoing uptrend that started in early 2016, or 2013, or even further back depending on who you ask. I already made my case.
When you factor in the global market conditions, which I’ve done here, this is an environment where I believe it’s easier to get paid buying stocks, not selling them. That could certainly change. Energy could roll over again, Small-caps and Transports could lose their former lows and new downside leadership can emerge. While I think that is the lower probability outcome, it’s always an important exercise to consider the other side.
Today we’re making the bear case and presenting the evidence that most points to a bearish environment in Q4 and one where we’re better off selling stocks, not buying them. [Read more…]
Is This An Energy Mean Reversion?
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about how the spike in Crude Oil earlier this week is impacting Energy Stocks. When we look specifically at the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index, prices broke down below the 2009 & 2016 lows, only to quickly reverse back above. We also saw this happen in the Oil Services Index. Prices of the $OIH broke below the 2001 lows only to get back above it swiftly. I think if we’re above 24 in $XOP and 14 in $OIH, we want to err on the long side. If we are in fact seeing a mean reversion in Energy Stocks, I would image Crude Oil will most likely be flat to up in that environment. The levels are set, now let’s see how this plays out!
[Read more…]
Money Game Podcast: The Irrational Permabear (EP.9)
We are back with another episode of The Money Game Podcast with Phil Pearlman. Today we talk about the inability for some people trade US stocks from the long side due to biases stemming from past experiences. This is a real thing that we see constantly. So we talk about the causes, being aware of these feelings and what can be done to overcome these hurdles. I’m lucky that I’ve been through enough bull market and bear market cycles to not get stuck into betting on just one side or the other. But some people have a real fear of admitting they’re wrong and turning bullish at, what they think might be, precisely the wrong time. Some of this is driven by ego and some is just irrational anxiety. This is a really important conversation and one that I will likely listen to again several times over in the future.
[Read more…]
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