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All Star Charts

Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets

Credit is fine. What’s the problem?

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It starts with credit.

Bottom line.

This isn’t crypto where all these shitcoins can go to zero and it won’t matter to anyone who matters.

These aren’t marijuana stocks that are irrelevant to global asset allocation.

This is the bond market.

This is the biggest and baddest of them all.

We’re talking about almost a $120 Trillion asset class.

It’s just math: if there is real systemic risk in the equities market, you’re going to see it in credit.

There’s no way around it.

And so how are credit spreads doing?

As tight as they have been since last summer, and getting tighter: [Read more…]

February is Like A Bad Hangover

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Stock market bulls have been rewarded over the past 3 months.

And remember, historically these are the best 3 months of the year – November through January.

And then comes the hangover.

Think about those last three months.

Did you see people having a good time?

Were some having a little too much fun?

Would you agree there was some disorderly conduct?

Were participants behaving as if they were under the influence?

You bet.

And this sort of behavior is normal for this time of the year, and the entire 4-year cycle for that matter.

But then comes February – one of the worst months of the year. [Read more…]

The U.S. Is The Worst

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“I only trade U.S. Stocks, JC”

“If you can’t find a stock in America to buy you’re not looking hard enough, JC”

“I live in America, JC”

“I don’t know anything about those stocks in other countries, JC”

Trust me, I hear all these things.

Not so much from you guys, as it is my friends and colleagues in the business.

I feel like readers of Allstarcharts know better, and also we have a very global audience.

So the recency bias that oozes out of most American investors, who have gotten accustomed to the U.S. being the best place to be, forgot what it’s like when that’s not the case.

You’re talking about a decade of outperformance, and depending on how you measure it, you can even argue that’s it’s been a decade and half of U.S. dominance.

But believe it or not, stocks traded before 2011.

The U.S. wasn’t always the global leader in equities. [Read more…]

The Median Stock Breaks Out

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The Value Line Geometric is one of the more underappreciated indexes that we have at our disposal.

The Dow is the OG, the S&P500 is the benchmark and the Nasdaq gets all the girls.

But you know, it’s the Value Line Geometric Index that might actually give us the best information. [Read more…]

Most new 52-wk highs in over a year

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I remember last year getting yelled at and trolled online because I was talking about breadth improvement.

Just because their stupid computers weren’t telling them that it was time to buy didn’t stop me and my team from simply counting how many stocks were going up vs how many were going down.

Boy did that serve us well as stocks have absolutely ripped higher over the past couple quarters.

We’ve been in a raging bull market while most investors keep asking me when stocks are going to bottom.

That’s how far removed most people are from reality.

In fact, market breadth has improved so much that we’re now seeing more stocks making new 52-week highs than we saw at the peak in the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq back in late 2021.

Yes, more stocks are making new highs today than there were at the “market’s highs”: [Read more…]

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