JC, Author at All Star Charts Page

S&P500 New 52-week Lows Relative To Other Developed

January 19, 2023 by JC

The underperformance out of U.S. Large-cap Growth indexes continues.

It’s not the stock market’s fault that the S&P500 has way too much exposure to large-cap growth.

And when we talk about “the stock market”, there are countries outside of the United States that continue to shine.

Today’s Chart of the Day shows the S&P500 hitting new 52-week lows relative to Developed Countries outside of North America: [Read more…]

Why Stocks Bottomed Last June

January 18, 2023 by JC

This is a question I’ve been getting a lot.

“JC, how could you say we’re already in the 8th Month of a new bull market???”

The things people call me over email or on twitter are not something I would repeat in front of my mother, or daughter, and certainly not in front of any of you guys.

But I’m a big boy. I spent a lot of time on trading floors, dugouts and locker rooms. I’ve heard way worse.

It is interesting, however, to observe the feedback I get from just some basic arithmetic.

This isn’t like some random opinion I have about the economy, or Fed policy or earnings. This is just 3rd grade math.

Are more stocks going up? Are more stocks making new highs? Or are more stocks going down and making new lows?

Since June, the answer has been up and certainly not down.

Notice how the new lows list peaked in Q2. Even though some of the large-cap growth-heavy indexes made new lows later in the year, even for just a hot second, by that point there were almost no stocks left that were going down. [Read more…]

[Premium] Mid-Month Conference Call Video Recording January 2023

January 17, 2023 by JC

This is the video recording of the January 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

[Read more…]

You know how I know it’s not a downtrend?

January 15, 2023 by JC

Yesterday we talked about how early the Phlx Gold & Silver Index was in this cycle.

This index of 30 precious metal mining companies was the first of the Gold related stock indexes to break out. This was about a month after Gold Futures confirmed a buy signal for us in early October.

But of the “stock” related indexes, we look to the Phlx Gold & Silver Index as a leader. It certainly acts like one.

And do you know how I know it’s not a downtrend?

Look at its components. Each column represents a different moving average ranging from the 5-day all the way to the 250-day. The further to the right the column sits, the longer the smoothing mechanism we used.

Green cells represent when the price of the stocks are above that particular moving average, and each of the 30 stocks are listed on the left side of the table:

[Read more…]

Bitcoin Dow Theory Signal

January 15, 2023 by JC

Back in the late 1800s Charles H. Dow wrote down all of his Tenets about the market in the Wall Street Journal.

These articles ultimately became known as Dow Theory.

One of the basic tenets that many are familiar with is the confirmation of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (which was simply known as the Railroad Average when Charlie was around).

If one of the two indexes is making new highs and the other is rolling over, something is wrong, and the trend is likely changing.

Now, if one of the two indexes is making new lows within an ongoing downtrend, and the other is already putting in higher lows, that bullish divergence is evidence of a change in trend. [Read more…]

Gold Rush: It was only a matter of time…

January 14, 2023 by JC

In the 4th quarter we saw the Phlx Gold & Silver Index ($XAU) break out above its key level, invalidating any bearish thesis that one could possibly have for Precious Metals.

You see all that resistance in the $XAU in 2013 and 2016, right around $110-113?

Well once we got back above that in November, it was time to start buying Gold & Silver stocks.

But where was the most popular ETF $GDX?

It was still below that overhead supply, as you can see in this chart below.

Until now… [Read more…]

Saturday Morning Chartoons: Lines Are Going Up

January 14, 2023 by JC

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.