From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
The market is back to happy mode.
$SPY is trading above 400, and all is well.
Swing Trader Pro: Afternoon Briefing (01-25-2023)
This morning $SPY broke below its 200-day moving average at 395.50 and then managed to come back above it.
It shrugged off $MSFT’s earnings report last night.
I call it the comeback kid!
[Options] Taking a Flyer on Chinese Content
Chinese content? What?
Look, I don’t know. I just follow Price. They are all just letters and numbers to me. If it trades, it’s liquid, and there’s a good technical setup — that’s all I need.
It just so happens that this particular company is engaged in creating Chinese internet content. Ok.
But man oh man do I like the potential reward-to-risk setup here so let’s get straight to the point… [Read more…]
The Short Report (01-25-2023)
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as “a market of stocks.”
Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.
We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.
The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too.
We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as The Hall of Famers, The Minor Leaguers, and The 2 to 100 Club.
We filter these universes for stocks with the best momentum and relative strength characteristics.
Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week via multiple reports.
Now, we’re also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.
[Video] What the FICC?: Playing a Weaker Dollar
It’s the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?
If the US dollar index $DXY is going to catch higher, it has a funny way of showing it. I haven’t ruled out a bout of dollar strength.
Nevertheless, I’m preparing to play USD weakness.
Check it out!
Potential Levels of Future Interest
Swing Trader Pro: Morning Briefing (01-25-2023)
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
$MSFT reported last night, and, at first, it rallied above $250. And then management had their conference call.
We’ll see how it acts, if dip-buyers show up or it just heads back down to $226.
Vega Risk is Real
Vega risk is real.
— Sean McLaughlin, NLD 📈 (@chicagosean) January 24, 2023
I tweeted that earlier today as I was feeling my position value decay away for no conceivable reason as the market was coasting sideways.
I felt helpless as my index options position was melting away, far beyond the level my theta risk suggested it would in a quiet market.
It turns out, the quiet market was precisely the reason.
It was a stark reminder to me: Long Vega also entails risks that I need to be aware of.
Most people, myself included, tend to worry about getting caught short volatility (short vega) in a market environment where volatility is rapidly rising. We’ve all heard the stories of traders holding naked short options that were overleveraged into a volatility spike. Those stories make the headlines. And rightfully so.
So it’s easy to forget that being long volatility can be just as painful when volatility is grinding lower as VIX certainly was today: [Read more…]
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