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Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets

Will Bonds Dig In?

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US Treasuries are off to their worst start in more than a decade as rates rise across the curve. 

The US Aggregate Bond ETF $AGG is down more than 4% year to date. Treasuries can’t manage to catch a bid. And High-Yield Bonds $HYG have fallen off a cliff.

But this could all change quickly. Especially if stocks continue to sell off. 

Money has to go somewhere as it flows out of equities. And with many bonds testing critical levels, it would make sense to see prices mean revert, at least in the near term.

Let’s take a trip around the bond market and discuss some of the key levels on our radar.

[Read more…]

[Options Premium] Collecting Some Coin

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Wild market conditions persist!  Yesterday, stocks had a huge gap down opening, but then spent all day ripping higher and closed convincingly in the green. Today, the rally picked up right where it left off.

Talk about whiplash!

This makes it incredibly challenging to find directional bets with any degree of confidence. So, with implied volatilies elevated across the board, today we’re hunting for another delta-neutral premium selling candidate.

And this time, we’re doing it on an individual stock.

[Read more…]

[Podcast] A Conversation with Financial Advisor Stephen Weitzel, Managing Partner at Reveille Wealth Management

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On today’s episode I sit down with Financial Advisor Stephen Weitzel. Stephen and I have known each other for many years. We’re both big fans of Technical Analysis, good food and college football. So this was a lot of fun!

Stephen walks us through his journey of first becoming a Financial Advisor, how helpful Technical Analysis has been for his practice and the journey towards $1 Billion in assets.

I’ve had a front row seat to Stephen’s growth, both as a business owner and as a Technician. It’s been really cool to see and I’m going to keep rooting for him and his team.

I always like to get different perspectives on the podcast, and I think this conversation is a great compliment to a lot of the other episodes we’ve done over the years.

Make sure to follow Stephen Weitzel on Twitter @stephenweitzel and check out Stephen’s firm Reveille Wealth Management.

Enjoy!

[Read more…]

This Low Is Different From the Last

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

How about that volatility!?

I don’t know about the rest of you, but days like these make me grateful that I get to do this for a living.

The Nasdaq 100 $QQQ opened the day down over 3% and closed up over 3%. The last time that happened was November of 2008.

How’s that for excitement?

Intraday reversals and wide ranges are normal during periods when volatility grips the market the way it has so far this year.

But today was different than the other tumultuous sessions we’ve encountered in recent months. We’re finally seeing some strong evidence of a bottom.

Let’s talk about it.

[Read more…]

The Short Report (02-24-2022)

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we’re also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis. [Read more…]

Happy 1-Year Anniversary Bear Market

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This month marks the one year anniversary of the top in stocks.

And more specifically, I mean the top in the internals of the U.S. Stock Market. Remember, that’s the best things were, and it’s been a painful deterioration ever since, particularly for most U.S. Index Fund investors, growth investors and most individual U.S. stock pickers.

The new highs list these days is loaded up with ADRs, Metals stocks, Staples and Energy. Most of the other stocks have been struggling. Not all of them are down, but many are sideways at best.

This chart really tells the story of what’s been going on. We discussed it on Tuesday night’s call: [Read more…]

February Conference Call: 5 Key Takeaways

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our February Mid-Month Conference Call on Tuesday. ASC Premium Members can click here to review the recording and the slide deck.

In this post, we’ll summarize the call by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.

Let’s get right into it!

[Read more…]

[Options] Leaning on Strength to Hold

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Markets continue to be “messy” and it’s tricky looking for positions to take aggressive stances in. And with VIX hovering at or near the 30 level for the better part of the past week and a half, the option trader in me continues to look for opportunities to sell premium.

A smarter man than me once told me: “If something is working, find ways to do MORE of it!”

Well, selling premium on balance has been working pretty well since January, so…

Chatting with the team this morning, one pocket of strength we identified that has been holding up relatively well in this slop is the banking sector. And while there weren’t any individual names we were willing to bet the farm on, the financials sector ETF $XLF caught our attention as a good possible candidate for a delta neutral credit spread. [Read more…]

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