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All Star Charts

Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets

It’s A Bull Market Ya Know….

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What’s the definition of a Bull Market?

If you say 20% price appreciation it’s probably because you watch too much basic cable.

Are a majority of stocks going higher or are a majority of stocks going lower?

That’s how we determine bull and bear markets.

And by the way, individual stocks do NOT have bull and bear markets. The concept of a bull or bear market is a broad market description, not reserved for individual stocks.

If anyone ever tells you that an arbitrary 10% move is a “correction” and 20% is a bull/bear market, then you know they can’t be trusted. It’s that simple. Move on.

So if you’re interested in the way markets actually work, as of earlier this month, when breadth improved, we proclaimed that the bull market was finally back, after the last one came to an end in February.

For a great way to see what the median price change looks like for stocks, we turn to the Value Line Index. This takes away the large-cap bias of some of the most popular market gauges and shows us the median stock performance: [Read more…]

[Premium] Details For November 2021 Monthly Strategy Session

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These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday November 1st @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday evening: [Read more…]

Filed Under: ASC

Is It Time for Precious Metals to Shine?

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From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley      

Procyclical commodities have attracted all the attention this year as inflation and rising rates have driven prices considerably higher.

But, as we pointed out last week, many of these contracts — Brent crude, natural gas, copper — are running into areas of overhead supply or are already in the process of correcting.

With that as our backdrop, let’s switch gears and focus on an area of the commodity space we haven’t talked about in months.

That’s right… precious metals!

While we’re seeing many leading commodities pause at logical levels of resistance, gold and silver have finally stopped going down and are rebounding off support. Despite trending lower since last summer, they’re still holding above the lower bounds of their trading ranges. We think this basket of shiny rocks is ripe for review.

Let’s take a look around the precious metals complex and see what’s new.

[Read more…]

International Hall of Famers (10-29-2021)

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 50 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the 50 largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

[Read more…]

Breadth Still Has Work To Do

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From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

While breadth has improved in recent weeks and months, the bulls still have their work cut out for them.

When we consider all our breadth indicators in aggregate, the evidence remains mixed. What else is new!?  It’s been that way for the majority of this year.

Many of the major indexes made new all-time highs this week. Meanwhile, some advance-decline lines are moving higher, but others are moving lower. Some are at the top of their range, but others are at the bottom of theirs.

The advance-decline line measures stock market breadth based on cumulative net advances. In other words, it takes the number of advancing stocks on a given day and subtracts the number of declining stocks. That number is then added to the previous day’s value, creating a cumulative advance-decline line.

A/D line divergences occur when price is making new highs and the A/D line is NOT.

Just because there’s no divergence in the A/D line doesn’t mean the market can’t correct. We see this happen all the time. But when there is a divergence in the A/D line, we want to pay extra-close attention because there is a heightened possibility that price weakness will follow.

Let’s take a look at advance-decline lines for some of the major averages and indexes in the US equity market.

[Read more…]

[Options Premium] Bearish Treasuries

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The team is out with a bearish piece on US Treasuries this week. Have a read. In it, they lay out the case why we should be looking to position for further downside trading action in a variety of Treasury instruments.

It’s been a while since I’ve had an opportunity to put a Bear Put Spread on, and these setups look like good candidates for them.

[Read more…]

A Trip Down Treasury Lane

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From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley  

Long-term interest rates have taken a hit this week, while the short end of the curve has continued higher. When we zoom out a bit, yields have been rising across the curve since this summer.

During the past few months, the 2-year yield has ticked higher by more than 30 basis points (bps), the 5-year has increased by almost 60 bps, and the 10-year has gained 40 bps. But when we look all the way out to the 30-year, it’s only risen by roughly 20 basis points.

Rates are rallying across the board, Treasuries are trending lower, and bond market investors are favoring TIPS and higher-yielding securities.

How do we want to position ourselves in this kind of environment?

Well, we definitely don’t want to be buying Treasury bonds.

In today’s post, we’re going to take a trip around the fixed-income market and discuss some US Treasury funds we can use as vehicles to express our thesis. [Read more…]

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