OK so 2 quick charts for you.
The first one is Johnson & Johnson trying to break out of a 6-month base. [Read more…]
How Bad Can Things Be?
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
A major theme we’ve been hitting on in recent months is that we’ve reverted to an equity market landscape dominated by US Large-Cap Growth stocks.
So we know that’s where the strength has been. But up until March-May of this year, these relative trends had actually been favoring Small-Caps and Value, and even other parts of the world over the US.
So was this just a counter-trend rally, or the beginning of a sustainable rotation? The real answer is it depends where you look and how you look at it.
But we are definitely seeing some developments that suggest there could be a rotation back in favor of value-oriented and cyclical stocks in the near future.
This becomes particularly clear when we look at the relative trends of some of these groups vs the S&P. And if we see these industry groups break out on an absolute basis – which many of them already are – this could be the extra juice needed for a true relative trend reversal that would put value back in the driver seat.
Let’s dive in and review some of these areas now!
Saturday Morning Chartoons: Winners & Losers
This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
Commodities Weekly: Base Metals Slice Through the Market Chop
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
We can’t ignore the resiliency in base metals.
Despite the classic year-two chop, base metals have remained buoyant while many other risk assets have come under pressure. They’ve even gained ground during the recent bout of US dollar strength.
And now we’re beginning to see signs of serious leadership emerge as Crude Oil consolidates its recent gains. The broad-based strength beneath the surface for this procyclical group of commodities has been undeniable. These risk-on metals have been the steadiest performers within the entire asset class for the better part of this year.
Steel has relentlessly pushed to new highs –we can’t wait to see those monthly candles! Tin followed through to the upside after last week’s breakout to new all-time highs. Even Copper has enjoyed a strong week as it challenges its 2011 all-time highs.
If the global growth narrative is going to take back off, we’d expect to see this kind of strength from industrial metals.
Now let’s take a look at a couple of metals that are leading the charge recently: Aluminum and Nickel. [Read more…]
[Options] Monthly Positions Review – August
Once again this month, I’m going to share info on positions that were closed in the month of July. As a reminder, our exit plans are always laid out ahead of time in each trade idea we publish. In every case, the exits mentioned below were all in accordance with the plans as laid out.
As we head towards August expiration, we only have one open position remaining with expiring August options. But July was certainly a busy month for exits — both profitable and not — as a couple of market whipsaws shook the trees and knocked us out of a bunch of positions.
Positions with August options that need monitoring: [Read more…]
Technical Analysis for IPOs
Initial Public Offerings are exactly that, the initial offering of shares to the investing public. That’s the beginning of price history.
This is how it used to be in the old days anyway. Today, we regularly see companies going public so their investors can take profits on their early stage bets. There have usually been several rounds of money raising along the way.
The liquidity is to pay investors, and not necessarily just to raise cash to grow the company.
And that bothers some people. But not me. I don’t really care.
I’m only here to try to make a few bucks off the whole thing. [Read more…]
Don’t Hold Your Breadth
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
We’ve been super obnoxious about the deterioration in new highs we continue to see in the US.
But the major averages haven’t been phased a bit. The S&P 500 and other large-cap indexes keep charging to new heights.
Yet when we look beneath the surface, we’re hearing a different story… The vast majority of stocks have NOT been making new highs along with the averages. In fact, we’re beginning to see an expansion in new lows.
This is a new development that’s commanding our attention right now, mainly because these are the weakest conditions we’ve seen many of our breadth measures since last year.
At the same time (and just like JC mentioned in his note from yesterday) we’ve already seen a stealth correction for the better part of this year!
Most stocks are simply NOT making new highs, and haven’t done so since Q1. Plenty more are trending sideways and have already been consolidating for months.
Perhaps we’ve already seen the market correct beneath the surface. Maybe that was it…
FOMO or Accumulation?
Inventories on exchanges fell by a whopping 60k Bitcoin yesterday following eight days of consecutive positive closes.
This is the second greatest negative net change in exchange balances of all time, just trailing behind the -70k change in May 2016, which preceded one of Bitcoin’s greatest bull markets ever: [Read more…]
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