I don’t often take long premium plays ahead of an earnings event, but there’s one coming on the horizon where the options pricing isn’t too high (yet) and the All Star Charts team has a price target that would yield us a greater than 4-to-1 return on risk if the earnings catalyst plays out in our favor. [Read more…]
Overthinking Intermarket Analysis: Yield Curve Edition
Everyone these days is talking about yield curves inverting. It’s the topic du jour, similar to things like golden crosses and 200 day moving averages. The difference is that this one is more intermarket oriented. “Well if this happens to bonds and that happens to rates, then this historically happens to stocks, or the economy”. Observing the behavior of one asset class to help make decisions on another is called Intermarket Analysis, or “Cross-Asset” in some more institutional circles.
I don’t think there is much more for me to say at this point about the yield curve. The crew over at The Chart Report pretty much covered it all beautifully last week. The short end of the curve (10-year minus 3-month) turned negative, but the long end of the curve did not. The 10s-30s spread is steepening and controlled by free markets vs the fed controlled short end. We’ve seen this happen before, like in the 90s for example, without it sparking bear markets. [Read more…]
[Options Premium] Fast Food Fat Profits
A year ago, I made a commitment to healthier eating. Not that I was a slob or anything, it was just that my attitude about what I was willing to put into my body (basically anything) needed to change. At my age, you begin to think about these things.
That said, I’ll still happily get long stocks of fast food companies that are poisoning the human race if there’s a way for me to profit from it (then spend the earnings at the local vegan grocer!). And one household fast food chain is setting up for a big potential move. [Read more…]
[Premium] The Many Near-Term Caution Flags
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
During last week’s Conference Call we discussed a lot of the potential catalysts to drive Equities as an asset class higher over the intermediate/long-term, however, we continue to err on the cautious side given our outlook for sideways chop in the short-term.
Thursday I wrote about a growing number of potential “oopsies” (failed moves), so I want to follow up on that post and outline another group of charts that I think are suggesting short-term weakness in stocks. [Read more…]
The US Dollar and US Equity Relative Performance
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
If the US Dollar is falling, International Equities trading via US listed ETFs should outperform US Stocks. When the US Dollar is rising, International Equities should underperform US Stocks.
Sounds like a logical relationship, but as usual, it’s not that simple.
[Premium] An Interesting Global ETF Theme
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
During last week’s Conference Call we discussed a lot of the potential catalysts for a lower US Dollar, so I wrote a free post talking about whether a weaker US Dollar means US stocks have to underperform International stocks. If you haven’t read that, please do that first, because in this post I’m going to quickly touch on a short-term theme that continues to build within our Global ETF Ratio universe. [Read more…]
Friday Afternoons
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Friday afternoons are my favorite time of the week, but not for the reason most people would think.
[Options Premium] Making a Run For Last Years Highs
You probably thought this would be a piece about US stocks, didn’t you?
While it certainly looks like the Christmas lows in the US are going to stick around for a while, the All Star Charts team is also detecting some broader potential breakouts overseas that we can participate in with options on index ETFs. [Read more…]
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