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Podcast Season 1 – Ep 23 – Jay Woods, NYSE Floor Governor

March 20, 2018 by JC

Jay Woods has been a designated market maker on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange for over 25 years. This being Technical Analysis Radio, I think it’s important to understand what goes on down there and how it’s changed over time. In this episode Jay shares old war stories from one of the most important and symbolic buildings in America. This conversation is the perfect compliment to some of the other perspectives we’ve heard throughout season one of the podcast. Jay Woods is a Chartered Market Technician who focuses on price behavior and sentiment. We discuss the current U.S. Stock Market environment including sector rotation, particularly in Financials and Technology. With volatility coming back in 2018, I think this is a great time to hear from Jay and find out what he’s seeing from the floor of the NYSE. [Read more…]

[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording March 2018

March 14, 2018 by JC

This is the video recording of the March 2018 Conference Call. This month we focus more on the fact that this is a market of stocks, and not just a stock market. In this video I present my case for why the overwhelming evidence is suggesting that stocks are going higher, not just in the United States, but all over the world. I specifically point out a list of 20 risk indicators that we want to watch extra closely. These “indicators”, as I call them, consist of very important stock indexes and ratios that indicate to us whether there is more risk appetite or risk aversion from institutional investors.

The idea is not to buy every stock mentioned in this video, but to take the evidence collectively to come to a responsible conclusion. If I was seeing more stocks to short than stocks to buy, we would be shorting stocks. But we’re not. I see big bases and breakouts from them all over the place. We have to play the cards we’re dealt, not the cards we wish we had. In this month’s call, I present to you exactly what I’m seeing right now.

Here is the video in full:

[Read more…]

Podcast Season 1 – Ep 22 – Jeff Hirsch, Editor of the Annual Stock Traders Almanac

March 13, 2018 by JC

Jeff Hirsch is the Editor of the annual Stock Traders Almanac, an inside look at the seasonal tendencies of the stock market. As Technicians we study the behavior of the market and market participants. By analyzing how our human activities change throughout the year, as well as various other cycles, we can see the impact it has on the stock market. Yale Hirsch, Jeff’s father, first started publishing the almanac in the late 1960s. In this podcast episode, Jeff tells us what it was like growing up studying charts and seasonality. He then walks us through some of the most important seasonal cycles, and what some of the implications are when markets ignore seasonal tendencies. In this podcast series we like to focus on the current market environment and this episode is no different. The Almanac Trader and I discuss the current Midterm Election year and how January got us started. There are several cycles coming together at once right now and it’s fascinating to hear it directly from Jeff himself. I think this discussion about seasonality is the perfect compliment to some of the other podcasts episodes that showcase different types of technical analysis tools. [Read more…]

[Chart Of The Week] The Historic Breakout In Technology

March 12, 2018 by JC

How can this not be the chart of the week? It should be the chart of the century. Everyone always likes to talk about bubbles and how everything is in a bubble. But what they’re missing is the implications of said bubble popping. Remember we’ve seen price bubbles before, lots of them. One thing you’ll notice is that the bigger the fall in price, the longer the time necessary to repair it.

After 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell almost 90% from its peak. It took 25 years to finally exceed that level for the first time. Towards the end of 1954, the Dow was able to make a new high and then continued higher for another 12 years before the next secular bear market began. It took a long time to repair that 90% crash, 25 years in fact. This is normal. But what is also normal is that from that repair came another 150% rally after initially exceeding those prior highs.

We’re seeing similar activity today in Technology. After peaking in March of 2000, this sector index collapsed by over 82%. It wasn’t until the past few months that we have finally been able to break to new all-time highs: [Read more…]

[Premium] Members-Only Conference Call Wednesday March 14th at 7PM ET

March 10, 2018 by JC

Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.

We’ve been on the right side of the market as we have focused on leading stocks and sectors and ignored the noise coming from the media. They want to run night time specials about markets in turmoil so they can sell ads to their precious sponsors at the expense of their consumers. We focus on the bond market that was screaming at us to buy stocks because we were not seeing any stress in credit. To the contrary, we saw credit spreads tightening while some were irresponsibly freaking out. We want to stick with this bullish approach to equities as there continues to be overwhelming evidence that stocks are in uptrends, not downtrends.

This month’s Conference Call will be held on Wednesday March 14th at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details: [Read more…]

The Most Important Chart In America

March 7, 2018 by JC

We want to be buying stocks. I don’t think I can be any more clear about that.

You guys know me as the obnoxiously bullish guy the past couple of years in the midst of “unprecedented pessimism”. I’m willing to admit that I have an unfair advantage that I just pay attention to price and purposely ignore everything else that most of you have to endure. This focus has allowed me to see clearly what is actually taking place instead of assuming that who I’m listening to or reading knows what’s going on.

Today I want to show you guys one single chart that I think tells the story of what the hell is going on here. It is awfully difficult for me to be bearish of stocks if the most important sectors in America are not just making new highs, but also breaking out to new relative highs. These leading sectors aren’t just doing well, they’re outperforming the rest. [Read more…]

[Premium] Bonds & Interest Rates: Now What?

March 6, 2018 by JC

U.S. Treasury Bonds have gotten absolutely destroyed, particularly on the shorter end of the curve. With interest rates exploding higher, money has been flowing beautifully out of the bond market. We’re obviously happy to see that. It took a little longer to get going than we originally wanted it to, but we got there. So now the reevaluation process is upon us.

Today I want to talk about what we want to do here with respect to Bonds and Interest Rates and what some of our options might be. [Read more…]

[Premium] The Consumer Stocks We Want To Buy

March 5, 2018 by JC

It’s a bull market in stocks. The bond market is confirming that. Until we start to see evidence that suggests otherwise, we remain in the camp that this is a ‘buy weakness’ environment and not a time to be selling strength. To get 2018 going on a good note, Consumer Discretionary stocks broke out relative to the S&P500. This is one of the most important sectors in America and I believe it is still in a secular bull market. [Read more…]