Sometimes Standard & Poors, Dow Jones, MSCI and FTSE simply don’t do the trick. If we want to analyze a specific group of stocks and the big boys haven’t created an index with what we want, what then? Through technology, we can just build our own. There’s nothing stopping us. Now, we’re not just going to create random indexes so we can complete with them in their space. The point here is to build something if and when it is necessary. Will it help us throughout our process or just create unnecessary noise? That is the big question. [Read more…]
Bonds Are Confirming The Risk Appetite For Stocks
With all of the major U.S. Stock Market Indexes hitting all-time highs, I think it’s important to see if the bond market is telling a similar story. Are bonds confirming the risk appetite we’re seeing towards stocks or is there a divergence? Based on my work, bonds suggest there is plenty of risk appetite out there globally and therefore stocks should continue higher. [Read more…]
[Chart Of The Week] The Technology Breakout No One Is Talking About
One of the biggest reasons why I got so bullish towards U.S. Stocks in early July was because of the breakout in Technology out of a multi-year range. This sector represents over 20% of the S&P500, so the way I see it, if the largest sector in America is breaking out of a range to new 52-week highs, it’s hard to be bearish. Although there were many other factors that have kept us bullish over the past few months, Technology has definitely been a big one.
Now, as sexy as this breakout in Technology stock prices might have been, it’s another breakout in Technology last week that really gets me optimistic: [Read more…]
[Premium] Weekly Open Letter About The Current Market Environment
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- Offense Sells Tickets But Defense Wins Championships!
- What Does Me Being Wrong Here Look Like?
- My Favorite Stock In Aerospace & Defense
- Visa Breaks Out To All-time Highs And We Love That
- Why A Bearish Island Reversal In Treasury Bonds is Possible Here
- Strength In British Pound Sterling vs Weakness In Japanese Yen
- Insurance Stocks Are Hitting All-time highs
- Commodities Are In The “Hot Mess” Category Right Now
Come Join Me At Stocktoberfest 2016 – October 13th-15th
My favorite event of the year is coming very soon! This is a weekend that I, along with many of my friends, look forward to every Fall. The island of Coronado is a special place that has brought a lot of people together and has helped launch incredibly successful businesses. In other cases, this event along with networking opportunities at the Del Coronado Hotel has helped grow many companies with new partnerships and business ideas. If there is one common denominator for all 5 Stocktoberfests since 2012, it’s that. Guys like Josh Brown, Ryan Detrick, myself and many others are always happy to share our success stories post-Coronado Island visits. I’m certain that this year will be no different. [Read more…]
[Chart Of The Week] This Sector Could Be Flashing A Warning Sign
Every week I go sector by sector and start my analysis from scratch on both weekly and daily timeframes. This provides structural perspective to get a bigger picture outlook and then I work my way down to daily timeframes for execution and risk management purposes. This is what we call a top/down approach. Along the way, I also want to see how each sector is performing relative to the rest of the market. This relative strength analysis is usually a ‘heads up’ for what is to come on a more absolute basis.
Today, I want to focus on one of the most important sectors in the US Stock market and why the relative underperformance is something we want to keep on our radar. [Read more…]
[Premium] Weekly Open Letter About The Current Market Environment
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- The Warren Buffet Trade: Trains, Banks and Insurance
- What Late August Means To Be: The Good, Bad & Ugly
- How Can We Manage Risk in U.S. Stocks Market Indexes?
- The Financial Media Is Lying About Crude Oil Correlations
- What Actually Moves With Crude Oil: Rates, Not Stocks
- Which Insurance Company Stock Is A Must Own Today
- How Money Flow Will Drive Equity Prices
JC Parets on Fox Business: Screaming Buys On Wall Street Right Now
This week I dropped by the News Corp building to chat with Liz Claman on Fox Business. Liz simply wanted to know what we want to be buying and what we want to be selling. I think we need to be watching last year’s highs in both the S&P500 and Russell3000. If prices are above those levels, it’s hard to be bearish. When you ask what will drive price higher, I’m in the camp that mega-cap tech, which represents over 20% of the S&P500, will continue to be a tailwind for markets.
Here is the interview in full: [Read more…]
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