Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by JC
This historic bond market crash continues.
And to be fair, it might not seem like a “Crash” because bond market volatility is still relatively low.
So it’s just been a slow painful grind lower.
But there’s no evidence that it’s over.
You can see the Japanese Yen continuing lower as well…. [Read more…]
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Last week, we held our April Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.
Let’s get right into it!
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
And bonds are catching a bid.
After four months of steady selling pressure, US Treasuries are finally carving out a tradeable low.
Let’s take a look!
by JC
This is the video recording of the May 2024 Mid-month Conference Call.
by JC
How’s this messy market treating you?
Are you happy the market is a mess? Or do you find it frustrating?
Keep in mind, the S&P500 is still at the same price it was 2 months ago.
Both the Nasdaq100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are still at the same prices they were back in February.
We’re almost half way through May.
The Technology Index, which is the largest component of the S&P500 (30%) and has the largest weighting in the Nasdaq100 (50%), is still where it was back in January.
Again we’re half way through May!
Meanwhile, don’t forget about the Small-cap Russell2000 that’s hilariously still stuck below where it was way back in December.
The Consumer Discretionary Index and Dow Jones Transportation Average are also down for the year.
That’s the market we’re in.
Some people keep pretending that this year is just like last year.
But I cheated. I actually looked at the data. So I know better. [Read more…]
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
We held our May Monthly Strategy Session earlier in the week. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.
This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
So far, the dollar-yen is playing its part with a little help from Tokyo.
Falling dollar, falling rates, falling dollar-yen…
That’s the mantra reverberating throughout the market.
But will interest rates get on board?
by JC
Imagine being one of these people who are lying to US citizens about falling interest rates?
Or worse, imagine being one of the poor victims who actually believed them?
Ouch.
The people lying to you include journalists across old media, a few economists that are somehow still employed, and even the President of the United States of America.
Or maybe the Biden didn’t actually lie to you. It could have been the intern, who tells him what to say, that is the one behind the false information.
Either way, none of these people are here to help you. They’re only here to help themselves. That’s how this works.
So as investors, it’s important for us to actually look to see what’s happening, instead of blindly trusting some random source, even if that includes the President of the United States, who’s been lying to you about falling interest rates all year.
Is the fact that he is up for reelection later this year further incentivizing these lies?
Probably.
It’s malicious. Criminal even.
And this isn’t a political thing. It has nothing to do with which candidates you like or dislike.
This is a just a making money thing for me.
So if you’re like me and are more interested in reality, instead of the lies they tell you on the cartoon networks, then just take a look for yourself.
Here’s the US 10yr Yield and US 30-year yield closing the week out at the highest levels in 6 months: [Read more…]
