From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Lumber futures have been on an absolute tear since last spring. The vertical but volatile price action off last year’s lows is something for the history books.

After trading down to 250 in late March of 2020, Lumber has since shot back above 1,600, where it trades today. It’s no wonder social media is full of people flaunting their wealth with stacks of timber. 

But we have to ask… is it time for a pullback? Is this rally overdone here? 

Let’s take a deeper look and discuss why we believe the logical move for Lumber over the short term is sideways… or even lower.

[Read more…]

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Commodities continue to rip higher. 

Copper is breaking out to new all-time highs. Soybean Oil is trading at its highest levels in over a decade. These moves come as Grains, Lumber, and Base Metals have resumed their near-vertical ascent over the past couple of weeks. 

But risk assets hitting our price objectives or running into logical levels of supply are key themes playing out across the market right now.

As many commodities approach key levels of potential resistance, it raises an important question…

Will sellers step in as they have in stocks?

Let’s look at some charts that could provide valuable information for answering this question. [Read more…]

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Are Softs finally showing signs of life?

Base Metals, Grains, and even Energy have posted strong rallies over the last year. Yet the Softs — Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, and Sugar — have continued to struggle below overhead supply.

But we’re seeing all the traditional signs of a structural trend reversal from this lagging group right now.

Let’s take a closer look at Coffee futures to pinpoint why we believe this bear-to-bull trend change is underway… 

[Read more…]

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Pockets of strength are once again emerging within the Commodity space.

We pointed out that both the CRB Index and the ASC EW33 Commodity Index were breaking above key resistance levels, pointing to a burgeoning upside move last week.

That upside move has now materialized!

We saw Industrial Metals — including Copper, Steel, and Aluminum — continue to follow-through as they grind higher. 

But this week’s biggest moves came from the Agricultural Commodities.

[Read more…]

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Are Commodities poised for their next leg higher?

After weeks of sideways chop, we’re beginning to see signs of strength that suggest an upside move is brewing.

Here’s some notable action: 

• Copper is resolving higher from a tight continuation pattern within the context of a primary uptrend
• Steel is again breaking higher from a quick coil pattern after making a parabolic move to record highs off last year’s lows
• Aluminum is next in line as it works its way higher within a massive consolidation
• Lumber continues to post new all-time highs day in and day out
• Other markets like Sugar and Wheat have found support at logical levels and look ready to resume higher

I think you get the idea…

In today’s post, we’re going to put these recent developments within the context of what they mean at the index level by taking a look at our custom index and contrasting it with the commonly used commodities benchmark, the CRB Index. [Read more…]