It’s the weekly bond edition of What the FICC?
The near-term direction of US interest rates will play a major role in how market conditions resolve in the coming weeks. This is a chart you want to monitor closely…
Check it out!
Will Rates Hold?
From the Desk of Ian Culley
Choppy conditions prevail.
Sure, risk appetite is returning as long-duration assets catch a bid.
The ARK Innovation ETF $ARKK, Tesla $TSLA, and even the Emerging Markets Bond ETF $EMB show impressive near-term strength.
Nevertheless, the overall market is still a range-bound mess…
The S&P 500 churns below overhead supply. A decisive downside resolution in the US Dollar Index $DXY has yet to occur. And commodities – at least at the index level – refuse to violate key support levels.
I doubt the markets will clean themselves up in the coming weeks. But if you want insight into the near-term direction of the major asset classes, keep an eye on this one chart…
Transformation
Today’s note has nothing to do with trading, and absolutely everything to do with trading.
Let me explain.
The solutions to trading problems aren’t always found when we’re trading. In fact, I would argue most of the time they aren’t. At least not for me.
Have you ever been in the shower, on a walk with your dog, or driving your car when suddenly you were struck with a fantastic idea or an important “to-do”? Not just about trading, but about anything?
Happens to me all the time.
Even worse, it seems that whenever I’m struck with a great idea or a prompt for an errand I need to do, they come in waves. The brainstorming just flows ideas out of my head in a torrent that makes it impossible for me to remember everything. And it always seems to happen when I have no ability to write it down.
So I just try to remember it all until later when I can either perform the task, send that email, write that blog post, make that trade, or adjust that strategy.
But this act of remembering prevents me from moving forward when all I’m trying to do is balance the spinning plates of thoughts running in my head.
Remembering consumes far more mental energy than is necessary.
Because of my limited mental capacity to maintain so many spinning plates, the majority of my great ideas and reminders inevitably are forgotten and never acted upon. At least, not in any kind of timely fashion that would be most beneficial to me or any projects I’m working on.
This past November, a book found me at just the right time and place that has completely transformed my productivity – both personally and professionally. This in turn has freed up so much time and headspace for me to make tremendous progress on long-term projects that have been festering, uncompleted, in the dark recesses of my mind for seeming ages. [Read more…]
Embracing Heuristics
From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts
One of the most remarkable philosophical pieces of all time is Plato’s “The Allegory of the Cave.” It’s commonly applied in various ways in today’s society, making it one of the most significant analogies to come out of the field.
The story follows a group of people chained underground as prisoners, only knowing the wall in front of them and nothing else.
Behind them is a fire, and between the prisoners and the fire is a walkway. As people move on the walkway, the prisoners see the shadows cast on the wall.
[Options] Taking a Flyer on Chinese Content
Chinese content? What?
Look, I don’t know. I just follow Price. They are all just letters and numbers to me. If it trades, it’s liquid, and there’s a good technical setup — that’s all I need.
It just so happens that this particular company is engaged in creating Chinese internet content. Ok.
But man oh man do I like the potential reward-to-risk setup here so let’s get straight to the point… [Read more…]
The Short Report (01-25-2023)
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as “a market of stocks.”
Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.
We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.
The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too.
We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as The Hall of Famers, The Minor Leaguers, and The 2 to 100 Club.
We filter these universes for stocks with the best momentum and relative strength characteristics.
Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week via multiple reports.
Now, we’re also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.
[Video] What the FICC?: Playing a Weaker Dollar
It’s the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?
If the US dollar index $DXY is going to catch higher, it has a funny way of showing it. I haven’t ruled out a bout of dollar strength.
Nevertheless, I’m preparing to play USD weakness.
Check it out!
Potential Levels of Future Interest
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