This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
[Video] Technical Analysis w/ Josh Brown & Michael Batnick
I only live about an hour from New York City, but it was my first time back since March 2020. It felt good.
Manhattan had been my home for over a decade before I moved to California in 2015. I’ve been back on the East coast now for about a year and a half, but haven’t been able to enjoy NYC for obvious reasons.
It was good being back. The sushi there is on another level. You don’t get that sort of thing in the suburbs.
Anyway, I dropped by to see my friends at Ritholtz Wealth Management to talk all things markets, technical analysis, finding the strongest stocks and how the Heat & Knicks did in the offseason.
You can check out the complete podcast episode here, or watch some of the highlights in the video below:
Commodities Weekly: Holy Cow!
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Breakouts continue to emerge left and right within the commodity space as participation expands to more and more subgroups.
One of the areas that’s had our attention lately is Livestock. Last month, we highlighted lean hogs.
And while they’ve since fallen back below our risk level, we’re now seeing cattle futures attempt to break higher from a similar base.
Let’s dive in and outline some long setups in these livestock futures as they’re offering a favorable risk/reward at current levels… [Read more…]
Stocks or Bonds?
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
As investors, we have plenty of options.
We can express a bullish or bearish thesis in a variety of different asset classes – from stocks and commodities to bonds and even forex or crypto markets.
But in making the decision of which one of these areas to focus our attention, we must ask ourselves a critical question every now and then…
Where is the best place to allocate our capital?
Money flows to where it is treated best. And that’s always where we want our focus to be.
Remember, we’re here to make money, not fulfill our intellectual curiosities or express our values.
Lucky for us, determining where the alpha is as simple as performing a little intermarket analysis.
So let’s dive in and do just that.
Young Aristocrats (August 2021)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Dividend aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.
As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.
Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That’s why we’re turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we’re curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for 5-9 years.
We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are “stocks that pay you to make money”. Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum & relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.
By adding our technical analysis to the mix, the Young Aristocrat setups give you the opportunity to own the best of the market’s future blue-chip winners before they become must-own household names.
Oftentimes, the strongest performers in this universe and even the Aristocrats themselves pay relatively small dividends. This is usually because the stock appreciation makes it tough to keep up with the payout – even for companies that consistently grow their yield in the double digits! For this reason, we don’t have a minimum threshold for the dividend. What we’re really doing here is creating a list of quality stocks based on their ability to persistently grow their shareholder return.
And maybe the best part? This list is not just designed for long-term investors. Any kind of investor or trader can use this list as it helps generate ideas across all timeframes, even the short-term. Remember, some of the most important filters we use for this list are momentum, relative strength, and proximity to new highs.
So let’s keep it real, these stocks are going up across all time horizons.
Can Cyclicals Make a Save?
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
Let’s flip the script this week and take a more granular approach to our analysis of market internals.
In recent months, we’ve written at length about deteriorating breath. While it’s been our position that the divergences in these indicators are normal following an onslaught of initiation thrusts like the ones we had last year, the lack of participation beneath the surface was drying up to levels that were simply not sustainable.
This lack of confirmation has caused many to question the new highs from the S&P 500 and other major US averages. But, the major averages have masked the pervasive weakness we’ve already been experiencing beneath the surface this year.
In last week’s post, we discussed this weakness in breadth and posed the following question:
Perhaps we’ve already seen the market correct beneath the surface. Maybe that was it…
The major averages are simply not a good representation of what US stocks have been doing for the past 6 months. So why do weak internals have to result in any significant downside for these indexes?
We don’t think they need to. In fact, we’ve seen breadth improve in recent weeks and we’re now seeing expansion in favor of the bulls again.
In today’s post, we’ll discuss these new developments with a focus on those areas that had been exhibiting the weakest internals – value and cyclical groups.
[Video] Talking About Humans w/ David Keller
On this week’s episode of the podcast, I sit down with David Keller to talk about all things behavioral finance. David is one of my favorite guys to talk to about the subject, so I reached out to him and said, “Dave, come on the pod and let’s talk about humans”.
He happily agreed and so we hit the ground running talking about Anchoring Bias, Loss Aversion, Risk Management, Supply and Demand Dynamics and Market Sentiment.
This wasn’t just an academic endeavor. We also discussed current markets, price trends, momentum, breadth and Dave’s favorite trade for the rest of 2021.
I think you’re really going to enjoy this one. I certainly did!
Mid-cap Inflation
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