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All Star Charts

Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets

[Premium] Q1 2021 Playbook

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This is our ASC Research Q1 2021 Playbook.

The first section dives deep into the US Stock Market and Market breadth, then we discuss the International Markets and specific Factors around the world. Next we go into U.S. Sectors and the best looking Industry Groups. In the second half of the report, we dive into the FICC space (Fixed Income, Commodities & Currencies) and their Intermarket Relationships. Finally we finish up with Cryptos, Options and overall Market Sentiment.

You can skip right to the trade ideas here if you’d like, or give the full report a read!
[Read more…]

RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (01-11-2021)

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From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

The weight of the evidence continues to overwhelmingly lie in favor of the bulls.

The major indices are above important levels and are well on their way to achieving our targets. We’re seeing sector rotation into offensive, cyclical areas of the market, and away from defensive, which is all confirming these new highs.

Commodities are showing incredible strength in the face of extreme positioning, reflecting the control buyers have in these markets.

And interest rates have claimed an important level, supporting the rotation into risk assets.

Let’s jump right into this week’s report with our US index table. [Read more…]

Your Power to Revoke Distress

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If you are distressed by anything external, the pain is not due to the thing itself, but to your estimate of it; and this you have the power to revoke at any moment.”

There’s a lot of noise out there.

It’s poison.

The glorified gossip columns and cartoon networks keep proving to be the equivalent of sugar and trans fat packed fast food.

Don’t be mentally obese.

Stick to price.

It’s better for the portfolio.

It’s better for the soul.

It’s a Bull Market you know…

I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but owning stocks and spending our time looking for stocks to buy has been a much better idea than shorting stocks and spending your time looking for stocks to sell.

It’s not even close.

Just think back at all the people who told us to do the opposite every day, every week and every month since the Spring.

Gross.

Glad we laughed them off and focused on Price. I don’t know where the hell we’d be without it.

Now, as we enter 2021 we want to continue implementing this strategy of buying breakouts, not shorting them. We want to buy the stocks and sectors that money is rotating into, not shorting those. We want to acknowledge the expansion of breadth and increased participation in stocks around the world, not blind fold ourselves and pretend it’s not happening.

New. All. Time. Highs. [Read more…]

Stocks Make New All-time Highs Relative To The Alternatives

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When stocks are in strong uptrends, they don’t just do well on an absolute basis, but they also tend to outperform their alternatives. We talk about that a lot around here.

Today’s chart has to show the Gold Fund breaking down to new all-time lows relative to the Nasdaq, as well as U.S. Treasury Bonds making new all-time relative lows as Interest Rates keep spiking.

Here is that chart showing the Nasdaq breaking out to new highs relative its alternatives: [Read more…]

Gold Breaks To 19-year Lows Relative To Nasdaq Stocks

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When assets are in strong uptrends, they tend to not just do well on an absolute basis, but they also outperform their alternatives. In the case of stocks, some good alternatives would be Bonds and Gold. No, not bitcoin.

So with stocks all over the world breaking out to new highs, more and more stocks participating, and even the biggest laggards around the world catching a bid, how are they performing relative to their alternatives?

Well, here is Gold vs the Nasdaq Composite breaking down to new 19-year lows. The trend is strong in this one: [Read more…]

4 Signs of a Market Correction

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During bull markets I always get asked about when it’s going to stop. I don’t get asked about stock market bubbles and unsustainable valuations during bear markets, that’s for sure. Those environments come with other kinds of funny questions.

This morning I woke up to one of my college buddies telling me that tech valuations are too high and that this has to be a bubble.

Journalists ask me every day how this can possibly continue. “Too high”, they say. “Too fast”, they tell me. “Fed Printing”, they claim. “It’s only 5 stocks!!!”… I can’t.

Anyway, maybe this is the top. Maybe we are about to crash. Maybe valuations are too high….

But there’s no evidence at all that this is the top. New All-time highs are not characteristic of downtrends. They are things we see regularly in uptrends. In fact, new highs are perfectly normal, and should even be expected in this type of environment.

The opinions of my college friends don’t matter. The opinion of the bond market? Yes, that matters. Currencies? Yup. Metals? Yea probably.

We already covered last week that credit continues to point to higher stock prices. It has nothing to do with a virus or vaccines. It’s only been about credit since this rally started 9 months ago. Don’t get it twisted.

Anyway, to continue with that conversation, I wanted to point out a few other places where we will definitely see signs of a stock market top, if/when it comes. Here is that chart: [Read more…]

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