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Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets

Traditional Risk Gauges At Inflection Points

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From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

A growing number of domestic and international markets are running into key levels of interest. 

This is a theme we’ve discussed at length over the past six weeks. We’ve also discussed how we see similar developments in the Commodities and Fixed Income markets.

With this as our backdrop, are you surprised that we’re also seeing similar action in the Forex markets right now? 

We aren’t! 

In this post, we’ll highlight two traditional risk-on currency pairs, both of which are trading at critical inflection points. 

[Read more…]

Mystery Chart (04-26-2021)

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From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Check out our latest Mystery Chart!

What we do here is take a chart that’s captured our attention, and remove the x and y-axes as well as any other labels that could help identify it.

This chart can be of any security, in any asset class, on any timeframe. Sometimes it’s an absolute price chart, other times it’s on a relative basis.

It might be a ratio, a custom index, or maybe the price is inverted. It could be all three!

The point is, when we aren’t able to recognize what’s in front of us, we put aside any biases we may have and scrutinize the price behavior objectively.

While you can try to guess the chart, the point is to make a decision…

So let us know what it is… Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

[Read more…]

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

[Read more…]

Commodities Weekly (04-23-2021)

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From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Pockets of strength are once again emerging within the Commodity space.

We pointed out that both the CRB Index and the ASC EW33 Commodity Index were breaking above key resistance levels, pointing to a burgeoning upside move last week.

That upside move has now materialized!

We saw Industrial Metals — including Copper, Steel, and Aluminum — continue to follow-through as they grind higher. 

But this week’s biggest moves came from the Agricultural Commodities.

[Read more…]

Is the Dollar Running Out of Steam?

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From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Last week, we highlighted the USD testing a critical level against the Rand. This is a theme we’ve been seeing a lot in a variety of USD crosses recently and will discuss more in a post later this week.

We’re finally beginning to see some resolutions from these key levels, and they’re revealing some very valuable information regarding the Dollar’s strength and the likely future direction for the $DXY Index itself.

In this post, we’ll take a look at some examples of this theme by showcasing two forex pairs from Northern Europe that are currently breaking down at major inflection points against the USD.

But before diving in, let’s set the stage a bit…

[Read more…]

Mystery Chart (04-20-2021)

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From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Check out our latest Mystery Chart!

What we do here is take a chart that’s captured our attention, and remove the x and y-axes as well as any other labels that could help identify it.

This chart can be of any security, in any asset class, on any timeframe. Sometimes it’s an absolute price chart, other times it’s on a relative basis.

It might be a ratio, a custom index, or maybe the price is inverted. It could be all three!

The point is, when we aren’t able to recognize what’s in front of us, we put aside any biases we may have and scrutinize it objectively.

While you can try to guess the chart, the point is to make a decision…

So let us know what it is… Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

[Read more…]

Commodities Weekly (04-16-2021)

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From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Are Commodities poised for their next leg higher?

After weeks of sideways chop, we’re beginning to see signs of strength that suggest an upside move is brewing.

Here’s some notable action: 

  • Copper is resolving higher from a tight continuation pattern within the context of a primary uptrend
  • Steel is again breaking higher from a quick coil pattern after making a parabolic move to record highs off last year’s lows
  • Aluminum is next in line as it works its way higher within a massive consolidation
  • Lumber continues to post new all-time highs day in and day out
  • Other markets like Sugar and Wheat have found support at logical levels and look ready to resume higher

I think you get the idea…

In today’s post, we’re going to put these recent developments within the context of what they mean at the index level by taking a look at our custom index and contrasting it with the commonly used commodities benchmark, the CRB Index. [Read more…]

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