Here is an update to our Bull Market Checklist of 20 Items.
*Note: The Sensitivity column represents how close the asset is to the risk level in question [Read more…]
Week In Review (04-24-20)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
For the week ended Friday, April 24, 2020:
Every weekend we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
This week we want to highlight the continued divergence between Energy stocks and Oil using our Sector and Industry ETF and Commodity tables.
[Premium] Updating Our Bond ETF Levels & Playing Devil’s Advocate
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Bonds are on the move once again, so we’re updating our risk management levels and targets.
Additionally, we’ll revisit the ratios to analyze which credit quality and duration characteristics remain in favor.
Crude Oil & Interest Rates Keep Crashing
This is an intermarket world that we live in. If you think what happens in the commodities and bond market isn’t directly tied with what’s also happening in the stock market, you’ve got a lot of homework to do.
You guys who have been following around along time know that we start out every single conversation about the stock market with, “Okay, what are bonds and commodities doing”. It starts there. And then we go into the asset in question.
Look at Crude Oil still crashing down to new multi-decade lows: [Read more…]
Weekly Performance Recap (04-17-2020)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Every weekend we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
As this is something we do internally on a daily basis, we believe sharing it with clients will add value and help them better understand our top-down approach. We use these tables to provide insight into both relative strength and market internals.
This week we want to highlight our US Equity Index and Industry tables as they illustrate an important resumption in leadership from the market’s most resilient areas.
Weekly Performance Recap (04-09-2020)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Every weekend we publish simple performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with brief commentary on each.
As this is something we do internally on a daily basis, we believe sharing it with clients will add value and help them better understand our top-down approach. We use these tables to provide insight into both relative strength and market internals.
This week we want to highlight our US Equity Index and Factor tables, as they are both showing near-term reversions in some of the most robust long-term intermarket trends.
These Long-Term Charts Remain Bleak
We’ve been talking a lot about our expectations for continued volatility and what conditions we’d need to be bullish stocks again.
In this post, we want to step back and see what some of the longer-term weekly and monthly charts are suggesting for stocks and the other major asset classes.
Why To Expect Massive Swings In Stocks
The trend for stocks is down. When they do rally, they scream dead-cat bounce. And bonds keep going out at new all-time highs every week. Gold is at its highest prices in 7 years and Interest rates are in free-fall along with bank stocks. What type of environment does this appear like to you? Is it the kind of market where we want to be buying stocks aggressively, or is this the type of market where we want to be smaller, cash heavy and more defensive?
Let’s try to figure it out together.
First of all, Industrials historically have the highest correlation with the S&P500 of all the S&P Sectors. This is what that group currently looks like. One of our most basic technical principles is that former support turns into resistance. We call that Polarity. You can see this taking place in this sector index: [Read more…]
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