Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
In today’s post, we’re going to do an update on some of our favorite and most essential intermarket indicators. We’ve also updated our risk checklist so we can discuss the changes that have occurred over the past week or so.
Are market participants embracing more or less risk these days?
We’ll get there.
We’ve been obnoxious about our theme that this remains a messy environment for stocks, which is nothing but classic “year two” bull market behavior.
But guess what: That’s just what it is right now. You have to play the cards you’re dealt, and right now they’re not the best. This is particularly true for trend-followers like ourselves.
Let’s talk about why.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza
Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for various asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We consider this our weekly state of the union address, as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.
In our RPP Report from the end of August, we discussed how the weakest areas were registering failed breakdowns and digging in at support.
In our most recent report, we focused on how the strongest areas were making fresh record highs. Things were looking up for the bulls… but that changed once again.
We’ve talked about how it’s been a back and forth battle with neither buyers nor sellers making any material progress for months now. And that’s exactly what we’re continuing to see, as bears have regained control again, pushing the major indexes lower for five straight sessions coming into this week.
For this reason, we thought a mid-week edition of the RPP would be appropriate to give us time to see what kind of follow-through would occur following the recent selloff.
In this week’s report, we’re going to talk about this near-term weakness but also some positive developments, like the healthy expansion in participation for ex-US equities in recent weeks and months.
I’m working with a broken hand these days, so we’re also going to try and let the charts do most of the talking. Don’t worry, there are plenty out there that have something to say. Let’s look at some now.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridg
Money really likes to flow where it’s treated the best… and as far as sectors and even most industry groups go, there simply isn’t much alpha out there at the moment.
In analyzing relative trends, we’re always aware of how the overall stock market is performing against defensive assets.
In today’s post, we’re going to check in on those sectors investors pile into when seeking safety as opposed to positioning for risk.
Utilities, Real Estate, and Staples… the “bond proxy” groups. Let’s dive in.
This is the recording from the live September 2021 Conference Call for Members of the Allstarcharts India! Before getting into individual stock ideas in India, we’re going to first start with the global macro perspective. Once we identify the direction of the underlying trends from a structural and broader view, then we’ll dive into the NIFTY Indexes on both longer-term and short-term timeframe. We want to look at Large-caps, Small-caps and everything in between before getting into the Sector and Industries themselves like Energy, Banks and Pharma.
This is when we finally break things down to the individual stock scenario with identified risk vs reward opportunities. That is what this is all about – aligning ourselves in the direction of the underlying trend while at the same time identifying where the risk is to make sure the potential reward is skewed exponentially in our favor. You will find that throughout this process we discuss Momentum, Fibonacci and Relative Strength. I encourage you to check out the Education Section so you know exactly where I’m coming from when you hear me mention these tools.
Here is the video in full:
We retired our “Five Bull Market Barometers” in mid-July last year to make room for a new weekly post that’s focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let’s jump into this week’s edition.
This week, Nifty Financial Services broke out to claim an all-time high after forming a six-month base. This sector has been taking a breather for some time now, but we are finally able to see signs of improvement.
Across the world, when strong market rallies come through, they come in unison with Financials. So if this current rally has to continue, we need the support of this sector. Are we going to get that though? Let’s see what the charts are saying. [Read more…]
