Did you notice how Stocks, Bonds and Gold are all at or near 34-day highs? [Read more…]
[Premium] Bull Market Checklist Update – 4/27
Here is an update to our Bull Market Checklist of 20 Items.
*Note: The Sensitivity column represents how close the asset is to the risk level in question [Read more…]
[Premium] Bull Market Checklist Update
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
We turned bearish on equities in February from a structural standpoint and have been tactically positioning ourselves in both directions since. We’ve taken advantage of the bifurcated market we’re in by continuing to find opportunities on both the long and short side. Right now we believe the near-term risk is to the downside in equities.
How defensive should we be and what will it take for us to turn bullish again?
Last week we put together a list of key levels that we want to see certain assets hold before turning bullish on stocks over any longer-term timeframe. We’re using this as our risk gauge for now.
As promised, we put that list into a table so that we can easily track and update its progress. Let’s dive in and see what the weight of the evidence is telling us right now.
Crude Oil & Interest Rates Keep Crashing
This is an intermarket world that we live in. If you think what happens in the commodities and bond market isn’t directly tied with what’s also happening in the stock market, you’ve got a lot of homework to do.
You guys who have been following around along time know that we start out every single conversation about the stock market with, “Okay, what are bonds and commodities doing”. It starts there. And then we go into the asset in question.
Look at Crude Oil still crashing down to new multi-decade lows: [Read more…]
[Chart Of The Week] A Treasure(y) Trove Of Information
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
We are always looking at intermarket signals and ratio charts for insight into various asset classes. We’ve recently written plenty about intermarket relationships that signal risk-appetite, or lack thereof, for stocks as well as others to get a read on yields.
Today’s Chart of the Day, High Yield Bonds (HYG) vs Short-Term Treasuries (IEI), is one of our favorite risk-appetite ratios.
Credit Market investors favor High Yield Bonds over Treasury Bonds during the “good times” – periods of strong economic growth, rising rates, etc. On the other hand, we know treasuries are a safe-have asset and outperform in environments where investors are uncertain and want a place to park their capital until the smoke clears.
Why To Expect Massive Swings In Stocks
The trend for stocks is down. When they do rally, they scream dead-cat bounce. And bonds keep going out at new all-time highs every week. Gold is at its highest prices in 7 years and Interest rates are in free-fall along with bank stocks. What type of environment does this appear like to you? Is it the kind of market where we want to be buying stocks aggressively, or is this the type of market where we want to be smaller, cash heavy and more defensive?
Let’s try to figure it out together.
First of all, Industrials historically have the highest correlation with the S&P500 of all the S&P Sectors. This is what that group currently looks like. One of our most basic technical principles is that former support turns into resistance. We call that Polarity. You can see this taking place in this sector index: [Read more…]
Chart Summit 2020 Review With JC & Strazza
Chart Summit 2020 is officially in the books. What an amazing time we had. Wow!
The videos of all the presentations are now up and you can go to ChartSummit.com and stream them for FREE!
As we always like to do here after Chart Summit, Steve Strazza and I sat down to discuss what we just witnessed. This was one of the most amazing list of speakers I’ve ever seen at a Financial Conference. I can’t even believe we were able to pull this off! Plus, we raised over $50,000 in donations, on the first day alone, to help fight coronavirus. Thank you to everyone who attended and donated! Also, big shoutout to Traders4ACause for helping us choose the organizations we’re donating to and collecting all the money. We could not have done this without you!
In this episode, we talk about the best presentations, the best charts and the common themes among the presenters. I think it always adds value to think back at what was discussed and reiterate a few of the important points that were being made by the best in the business. From Brian Shannon, Ari Wald, Craig Johnson, Gina Martin Adams, Andrew Thrasher, Frank Cappelleri, Paul Ciana, the list goes on and on….We discussed the current environment for the US and Global Stocks, Interest rates around the world, Gold and other metals, US Dollar and other currencies around the globe. There was so much value.
This was my favorite Financial Conference of all time. Easily.
I hope you enjoy our discussion, and make sure to check out all the presentations at ChartSummit.com!
[Premium] The Inter-Market Signals We’re Watching
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Last week we talked about some of the positives in the market…Copper holdings its low, Tech leadership, etc.
This week we’re taking a look at why this rally is likely a dead cat bounce with some stats.
In this post, we’re going to outline the inter-market signals we’re watching for stocks next move…and why they suggest it’s likely lower.
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