Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by Tom Bruni
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
The market remains a “hot mess”, so we’re looking under the surface at breadth and risk appetite measures to identify clues as to the potential direction that this 15-month range will resolve itself.
Today I want to look at one of those measures, Consumer Discretionary stocks vs Consumer Staples.
by JC
Everyone these days is talking about yield curves inverting. It’s the topic du jour, similar to things like golden crosses and 200 day moving averages. The difference is that this one is more intermarket oriented. “Well if this happens to bonds and that happens to rates, then this historically happens to stocks, or the economy”. Observing the behavior of one asset class to help make decisions on another is called Intermarket Analysis, or “Cross-Asset” in some more institutional circles.
I don’t think there is much more for me to say at this point about the yield curve. The crew over at The Chart Report pretty much covered it all beautifully last week. The short end of the curve (10-year minus 3-month) turned negative, but the long end of the curve did not. The 10s-30s spread is steepening and controlled by free markets vs the fed controlled short end. We’ve seen this happen before, like in the 90s for example, without it sparking bear markets. [Read more…]
by Tom Bruni
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
During last week’s Conference Call we discussed a lot of the potential catalysts to drive Equities as an asset class higher over the intermediate/long-term, however, we continue to err on the cautious side given our outlook for sideways chop in the short-term.
Thursday I wrote about a growing number of potential “oopsies” (failed moves), so I want to follow up on that post and outline another group of charts that I think are suggesting short-term weakness in stocks. [Read more…]
by Tom Bruni
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
If the US Dollar is falling, International Equities trading via US listed ETFs should outperform US Stocks. When the US Dollar is rising, International Equities should underperform US Stocks.
Sounds like a logical relationship, but as usual, it’s not that simple.
by Tom Bruni
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
During last week’s Conference Call we discussed a lot of the potential catalysts for a lower US Dollar, so I wrote a free post talking about whether a weaker US Dollar means US stocks have to underperform International stocks. If you haven’t read that, please do that first, because in this post I’m going to quickly touch on a short-term theme that continues to build within our Global ETF Ratio universe. [Read more…]
by JC
This is the video recording of the March 2019 Conference Call.
by Tom Bruni
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Last week I had the pleasure of being on Real Vision TV where I recorded two segments, one on Bonds and Equities pairs trade (short EWJ/SPY).
The video to the Equities trade is here, but since I’m not sure if/when the free video about Bonds will be out I wanted to go through that trade for you all on the blog. And if the video does come out, I’ll be sure to share it.
[Read more…]
by JC
It’s been a frustrating period for stocks in Canada over the past decade. Up just 7% since their 2008 highs, Canadian equities have been consistently underperforming for almost 10 years. But are things now finally changing? [Read more…]
