The current market calamity is certainly not sparing many of our long or delta neutral positions. The good news for us is the majority of them have defined risk.

At the open this morning, many of our positions traded through our stop-out levels. But an important point to remember here is that we’re looking to see a CLOSE below our stop levels. We’re don’t jump on an exit the second a level is broken intraday.

There is a lot of trading left in today’s session. This is not the time to be dumping defined-risk positions into the hole. [Read more…]

Careful what you wish for?

Options premium sellers profess a deep and undying love for elevated volatility. But when they get it, are they willing to act? Sometimes when you’re in it — like right now — it can feel very scary. The urge to sit it out may overtake you. I get it. Been there.

For those of us who plow ahead and like to take advantage of opportunities when statistical edges are backing them up, this next trade is for us. [Read more…]

The team is out with a couple bullish pieces on the metals sector this week. This chart in Gold, in particular has my attention:

This looks like an upside move I want to play. [Read more…]

Feels to me the stock market is at one of those inflection points. Personally, I’m finding it difficult to find trades that I’m willing to bet too aggressively long here. But on the flip side, I’m not willing to get aggressively short here either. In situations like this, the best move is often to patiently wait for the market to tip her hand. Problem is, we all know waiting is the hardest part (cue Tom Petty).

Of course, there are strategies options traders can employ profitably when the expected move is a sideways chop fest. And the best way to line the odds of profitability more in our favor is to find situations where a sideways grind has already begun to take shape and it is coupled with higher than average volatility being priced into the options. When selling premium, this gives us some nice cushion to absorb some moves.

I’ve found just such a situation for us to take advantage of. [Read more…]

JC is out with a piece today that is bearish on Latin America broadly, and more specifically, Mecradolibre $MELI.

Here’s the money line:

Here is the chart showing Mecradolibre failing once again near this 677 level that has been trouble since last year. There is clearly still an overwhelming amount of supply here. The bet is that $MELI gets back down to 517, which would put it near the lower end of this multi-year range:

The stock is expensive so if getting short a $650 stock feels pretty unappealing to you, I’ve got an options trade that may be more palatable. [Read more…]