From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US dollar Index $DXY is running into support at a shelf of former highs.
How it reacts will influence how stocks fare heading into the year-end.
Let’s check out three charts and three levels to monitor.
[PLUS] December Playbook: Trends, Opportunities, Risks
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
This All Star Charts PLUS Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of binary decisions, tactical calls and asset allocation models.
Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard and our Playbook Chartbook, this piece is designed to help dynamic asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.
The Bear Case For Stocks
[Premium] Monthly Charts Strategy Session December 2022
This is the video recording of our December 5th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
The Minor Leaguers (12-05-2022)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.
We’ve had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.
For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.
That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.
We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.
To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.
And it doesn’t have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.
The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus on the best players.
But, instead of all-time highs, we’re sorting by 52-week highs these days, as we don’t want to discriminate against energy or other cyclical stocks.
The goal is still to catch the strongest names while they’re small and have serious upside potential. If any of these stocks ever climb the ranks to the big leagues, the returns could be huge.
We’re looking at up to 10x moves just to break into large-cap land!
Let’s dive into this week’s report and see what’s happening in some of the hottest stocks in the Minor Leagues.
Follow the Flow (12-05-2022)
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.
And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.
Then we flip through our list of stocks flashing unusual activity and pick the best setups using many of the same technical filters we do for our other scans.
And, just like that, we’ll follow the money flow and fatten our own pockets along with some of the world’s most powerful financial institutions.
Weekly Market Notes: Uptrends In Short Supply
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
The uptrend for bonds peaked in early 2021. The trend for stocks did so a year later. Commodities peaked in June and over the past few months the trend has been slowly (an unevenly rolling over).
More Context: It could always reverse higher, but the commodity trend has fallen two weeks in a row and is down in 6 of the past 10 weeks. As the summer peak in commodities moves further into the rear-view mirror, it looks increasingly like all three of the major asset classes are now in downtrends. This leaves investors with fewer places of refuge as the most challenging year in a generation grinds to a close. Business cycle history suggests that the next important turn in trend will be bonds turning higher (and bond yields turning lower). It hasn’t happened yet (despite the recent drop in bond yields) but our long-term trend indicators suggest bonds are closer to turning higher than stocks (and bonds are trending higher relative to stocks). While the pattern is not set in stone, equities have not made the case that this time will be different.
We take a Deeper Look at a week of fumbled opportunities and areas of interest in an environment where equity market uptrends are hard to find.
[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
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