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Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets

[PLUS] Dynamic Portfolio Management: Environment Favors A Dynamic Approach

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From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Participating in strength so far in 2022 provides us with some operational flexibility in our Dynamic Portfolios. But in a market with relatively narrow participation, it can be challenging to find ways to move from strength to strength without becoming too concentrated. That said, we are reducing exposure to some of the strongest areas of the market – taking gains more than expecting weakness. We are finding opportunities to maintain our current exposure to the market, increase our diversification and remain consistent with the message of caution coming from our risk indicators and the weight of the evidence. This remains an environment that favors a dynamic over passive approach and one in which being tactical and cyclical enhance strategic exposure.

[Read more…]

[Premium] Mid-Month Conference Call Video Recording April 2022

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This is the video recording of the April 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

  • The Major U.S. Indexes and Current Technical Analysis
  • Commodities making multi-year highs vs Stocks
  • Our Sentiment Composite Indicator shows excess Pessimism
  • Value Stocks continue to lead vs Growth Stocks
  • Energy Stocks and Commodities Trades
  • Agriculture Stocks and Commodities
  • Base Metals & Precious Metals
  • The US Dollar vs US Dollar Index are very different
  • Global Markets: Pockets of Strength & Weakness
  • Bonds Yields and Yield Curves
  • What To Do With These Beat Up Growth Stocks
  • Bitcoin Correlations & New Crypto Trade Ideas

[Read more…]

Under the Hood (04-18-2022)

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to our latest Under the Hood column, where we’ll cover all the action for the week ended April 15, 2022. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our Minor Leaguers column.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Watch this video for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’s a lot of overlap.

[Read more…]

Follow the Flow (04-18-2022)

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

They’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.

Then we flip through our list of stocks flashing unusual activity and pick the best setups using many of the same technical filters we do for our other scans.

And, just like that, we’ll follow the money flow and fatten our own pockets along with some of the world’s most powerful financial institutions.

[Read more…]

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

[Read more…]

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we’re currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Tech Weighs Heavy on US Stocks

US equities have outperformed their global counterparts for the better part of the last decade. This is largely attributed to the vast differences between the weighting and composition of US and international markets – mainly, the heavy weighting toward technology in the US and the relative absence of tech outside the US.

The overlay chart of Tech vs. the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 vs. the ACWI All World Index ratios tell the story. Tech dominance in the US strongly correlates with US dominance over global markets. With tech taking the brunt of the recent selling pressure, it calls into question the continued outperformance of US equities. This reiterates the possibility that what has worked for the past decade may not work in the years that lie ahead. Position accordingly…

[Read more…]

[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes & Breadth Trends

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From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway:

  • Optimism fades as risk off reigns.
  • Inflation hopes spring eternal.
  • Beneath the global trends it’s Pax Britannica.
The hope that emerged from the epic March bounce and the promise of seasonal tailwinds has run into the harsh reality that the breadth backdrop remains challenging and the risk environment has not meaningfully improved. Simply put, this was not the April the bulls were looking for. Optimism has been nipped in the bud (AAII bulls dropped to their lowest level since 1992 last week) and our longer-term risk on /risk off indicator has fallen back toward its March lows. But nothing is actually that straight forward. Looking within our US Risk Off Index, we see three of them are at or near new highs, while two are breaking down to new lows. Even within areas that typically move together, we are seeing evidence of bifurcation.

[Read more…]

Get The STEPN

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Just to be clear, I’m no expert when it comes to NFTs.

Later this week I’ll publish the latest podcast with Justin Paterno, Portfolio Manager of the new NFT fund by OSPREY that I’m an investor in.

But today I wanted to share some of my recent experiences with the new STEPN App and NFT.

I’m earning GST Coin to go running. In fact I’ve made about $150 worth of this Utility Coin in the past 3 days alone. That’s one hundred fifty United States Dollars!

You can see the price of the STEPN coin here since the new issue last month: [Read more…]

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