This is the video recording of the November 4th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets
11/04/21 3PM ET [Read more…]
[PLUS] November Playbook: Trends, Opportunities, Risks
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard, this piece is designed to help active asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.
Why Does Fibonacci Work [Part 2] – Frequencies Moving The Markets
In Part 2 of our Fibonacci Series we dive into Frequencies with Jim Bartelloni.
If you’re already familiar with my others videos with Bart, you know this is all math. No fundamentals to see here!
In this video we look at the similarities between the shapes made by vibrating grains of sand and the ups and downs of the stock market, particularly the Small-cap Russell2000 ETF $IWM.
This was really cool. Hope you enjoy! [Read more…]
[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key Takeaway: There’s nothing more bullish than new all-time highs, and there was plenty to go around as we reviewed our monthly charts over the weekend. It’s no wonder that optimism is resurfacing as stocks indexes up and down the cap-scale push to new records. Whether current sentiment will develop into the type of risk-seeking fervor that brought us into the year is unseen. But bulls continue to rise, and interestingly so do the bears. The AAII and II bears ticked higher last week, with II bears reaching levels not seen since May of last year. The backdrop is turning to optimism, but there’s still enough pessimism among investors to keep sentiment off of the risk side of the scale.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Equity Love Affair Undiminished
Equity ETF’s have seen half-a-trillion dollars of inflows so far this year. Bonds have seen a fraction of that. Commodity ETF’s have struggled to attract attention despite DBC (a broad commodity ETF) gaining nearly twice as much as SPY (S&P 500 ETF) this year. For a variety of reasons, commodities remain unloved and under-owned from an asset allocation perspective. Opportunity set decisions are going to weigh heavily on portfolio performance in coming years.
Eyeing the Long End of the Curve
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
We’ve been pounding the table about rising rates for over a month now.
It’s hard not to when they’re rising across the curve in both the US and abroad. Cyclical and value-oriented assets have increased in tandem, as energy and financials have become leadership groups.
We continue to see countries with heavy exposure to financials emerging from multi-decade bases. Just last month, the Euro Stoxx 600 made new all-time closing highs, while Italian equities reached their highest levels in 13 years.
But when we look further out on the curve, the long end hasn’t been keeping pace with shorter duration yields in recent weeks.
What if we’re not Bullish enough?
November Is for the Little Guys
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
The January Effect posits that financial markets experience a seasonal anomaly in the beginning of each year whereby stock prices tend to rise more than in any other month.
But this bullish period extends beyond a single month. In fact, our data show that buyers come out in full force starting in the late fall/early winter.
According to historic seasonal trends, the best time of the year for the stock market is from November to January. Smaller stocks are known to outperform during this period.
And if we’re focusing on small-caps, November is by far the single best month. So it should come as no surprise that the Russell 2000 and S&P Mid-Cap 400 are breaking out to fresh all-time highs this week. They did the same thing last November. In fact, November of 2020 was the best month ever for these small- and mid-cap indexes.
Let’s dive in and discuss some of the seasonal tailwinds supporting these new highs from SMIDs.
[Options] The “Bitcoin ETF”
Ok, so technically Microstrategy $MSTR is not a bitcoin ETF.
But for those of you paying attention to this space, you know that the CEO Michael Saylor has gotten very long and very loud about his company investing significant portions of its operating capital in Bitcoin. And because of this, the share price of $MSTR stock has since become highly correlated to the price action of Bitcoin.
We were chatting about it this morning and the one thing the team all agreed on is 10 years from now, Saylor is either going to go down as the Greatest Fool in History, or, The Greatest Investing Genius in History. There’s really no other outcomes here for him. And you know what? I say cheers to you, Michael Saylor! Way to put your cohones on the line for something you so passionately believe in. Your investors will either one day elevate you to Sainthood or sue you into oblivion. Godspeed.
We’ve got our popcorn ready and we’ll be watching!
Anyway, all of the above makes for fun coffee table conversation. But we traders only care about the price action and how we can profit from it. So let’s get right to it. [Read more…]
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