I’m in Chicago this week trying to sit down and chat with the smartest people I know in this city. I love the town, but man is it cold!
Is It Time For Uranium Stocks To Break Out?
There are assets out there that have a lower or no correlation with the rest of the U.S. Stock Market. These investments are really helpful, but even more so when we’re looking for stocks to buy in an environment where we think most stocks keep falling in price. One of these less correlated areas is the Uranium space.
Investors in Uranium stocks over the past 7 years have been some of the worst stock market investors in the world during that period. Think about this, Uranium investors have performed even worse since 2011 than gold and silver investors! That is saying a lot. We’ve already been buying precious metals stocks the past couple of months so it seems like rotation into the worst of the worst areas is happening in unison. [Read more…]
[Premium] Video Update On U.S. Stocks & Interest Rates
There’s something fishy going on in Interest Rates and the U.S. Bond market right now. We’ve been bearish bonds and constructive about higher interest rates for as long as I can remember. This has worked out well. It was a big part of the bullish stocks thesis and it’s played out. Bonds are at lows and rates are at highs. I just don’t think it will be as easy for this to continue, particularly with what we’re seeing from both a sentiment and intermarket perspective.
Here’s what’s got me thinking differently: [Read more…]
[Premium] Our Shorts Have Been Working, Here Are 5 More!
The market is a beautiful thing. We have uptrends and we have downtrends. We weigh the evidence regularly to determine which one of these we’re in, or if it’s a sideways trend. Our approach to the market has to depend on the market environment we have. In other words, we have to play the cards we’re dealt, not the cards we might want. So we first determine how we want to approach the market, and then we decide which vehicles would be the best way to express that thesis.
Here are a list short ideas that I think present favorable risk vs reward opportunities: [Read more…]
[Premium] Russell 3000 Sector & Industry Performance
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Over the weekend I ran the performance metrics of the Russell 3000’s Sectors and Industries to get some perspective on where the leadership is since the S&P 500’s high on October 3rd and year-to-date. In this post I just want to share this table and talk about some of the themes I see.
[Premium] Stock Market Correction Update
The big question coming into this wasn’t whether or not we wanted to be sellers of stocks, but how low could stocks go? The point I tried to make was that they could go a lot lower than any of us think. I’ve been around too long and have seen too much to be surprised by anything anymore. So if the risk is skewed to the downside, in theory there is unlimited risk. Whether there is or there isn’t, is not the point. The fact alone that we’re even talking about it has been reason enough to not be long this market.
When looking below trying to figure out how low we can go, I can draw all sorts of Fibonacci retracement levels and horizontal lines of all colors, but the truth is that the market doesn’t care about JC’s lines. Forced selling sparked by margin calls and hedge funds blowing up causes prices to blow through any “levels” all the time. Remember, when we identify specific prices, they are just levels of interest, not necessarily support levels. We won’t know if they were actually support until well after the fact.
With that scary disclaimer in mind, I did my best to identify the most important levels of interest. This is where we want to be looking for turning points, breadth divergences and other bullish characteristics, although knowing full well that the market may not care. These levels are good areas to take tactical profits on shorts, or press shorts if we’re below key prices.
Here is the video in full: [Read more…]
These Divergences Are Pointing To Lower U.S. Stock Prices
The thing about the market is that there is no holy grail. No matter how hard you try, you’re not going to find it. The holy grail does not exist. We have to weigh the evidence knowing full well that we’re working with incomplete information. The idea is to accumulate all of the data and make a conclusion based on all of it, not just some of it.
Today, I want to go over a few of the divergences that have put the bulls in a precarious situation. There is a large crowd of permabull “passive” investors that are taught just to buy stocks and hope for the best. They are shown all of these sexy equity curves and told again and again how much they would have made had they invested in the S&P500 in 1950 or 1982 or whatever cherry-picked date is forced upon them.
It doesn’t make these people good or bad. It’s just what it is. I think it’s important for market participants to understand the way things work. Based on the tiny tiny sample size of a 100 years or so, sure a lot of these theories could make some sense. We’ve had less than a handful of secular bear markets during this time, so if you’re making decisions based on the outcome of a few short periods, then go for it. But it’s not something I would ever do.
We need to reevaluate the market constantly as the data comes in and understand that we have no idea what the stock market is going to do. In fact, I’m willing to bet that it will do something it’s never done. You know why? Because the market does something it’s never done all the time. There are only 100 years of history. It’s easy to do something that’s never been done with such little data and such an irresponsibly small sample size. It’s not just different this time, it’s different every time.
I want to reiterate that there is unlimited downside risk in the market right now and I don’t think it’s being respected. It’s not until afterwards that they ask, “what happened??”. And that’s when the blaming game begins: The fed, the trump, the ebola, or whatever excuse du jour is being regurgitated on the various media outlets. The only one to blame is ourselves. It’s our portfolio at risk. We are the only ones who profit when it goes up and the blame is 100% ours if we lose money on long positions when the market goes down.
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording October 2018
This is the video recording of the October 2018 Conference Call. There are a series of developments that have transpired over the past month that we need to be aware of. The bearish implications of these events has us approaching the stock market from a much more neutral perspective.
In the market, it is more important to know when to take your foot off the gas than it is to know when to step on it. We have our defensive players out on the field right now. Here is the video in full:
- « Previous Page
- 1
- …
- 160
- 161
- 162
- 163
- 164
- …
- 193
- Next Page »
