Sector rotation is the lifeblood of every bull market. When one sector reaches a temporary peak, another one takes over the charge while the former leaders consolidate. We have seen this happen throughout the past 2 years in a very consistent way. Today we’re taking a look at all of the individual sectors and the industry groups within them to find the areas of strength and weakness moving forward. [Read more…]
[Premium] Fresh Monthly Candlesticks!
The best hour I spend each month is going over my Monthly Candlestick Charts. I can’t understand how some people don’t do it. Think about it: 12 hours of your life per year. Imagine all the things you do throughout the year that takes you 12 hours and probably does you more harm than good.
If you forget everything I ever tell you, please just remember not to ignore the monthly candlesticks. It doesn’t matter if you’re a short-term trader or longer-term investor or anything in between. Getting longer-term perspective and identifying the direction of the primary trend is the most important thing we do. Once that has been determined, then we can incorporate multiple timeframes to break it down to our time horizon of choice, whether it’s more intermediate or short-term.
Since November is now in the books, it’s that time of the month to rip through a ton of Monthly Candlestick charts. Here’s what I’m seeing out there:
[Premium] What We’re Seeing In The U.S. Stock Indexes
I look at a lot of charts. The best way to visualize the changes in equilibrium between supply and demand just so happens to be in chart form. If there was a better way to do it I would use that instead. So I’m stuck ripping through thousands and thousands of charts a week. I’m cool with it. It’s something I enjoy doing because I know that the only way to properly weigh all of the evidence is to actually weigh it all.
One of the most valuable things I do is to go through every single U.S. Market Index. It really helps get perspective from all sorts of different angles, whether it is various market caps or weighting combinations. I’ve learned that it’s not just about the S&P500 or Nasdaq100 or Dow Jones Industrial Average. It’s how they are all getting along with one another that I’m most concerned with.
We’ll go one by one discussing risk levels, targets and implications: [Read more…]
[Premium] These Are The Shining Stars of the Healthcare Sector
As I continue to go through all of the stocks in my chartbook, I thought it would be good to post some of the more interesting ones. I’ve tried my best to identify only the stocks showing both relative strength and momentum, but that also present a favorable risk vs reward opportunity. This helps makes this portion of the analysis more actionable. You can see the more global macro context here, and you can see my list of Technology stocks I like here.
In this post, we are focusing only on the Healthcare Sector and the specific industries within it. [Read more…]
[Premium] My List Of Technology Stocks We Want To Own Today
We’re here to make money in the market aren’t we? Some people want to gossip about tax cuts or who the next fed chair might be. I personally see no absolutely value in this sort of data. In fact, I believe it does more harm than good.
We want to turn the TV off, shut down the twitters and social medias and focus on the only thing that matters: price. The first thing we do is identify what the current market environment looks like. In this process we include stock market indexes in both the U.S. and all over the world, Commodities, Interest Rates and Currencies. Once we have laid out exactly what sort of environment we’re in, then we can dig down to the individual sector level and ultimately to stock specific ideas. But all of this must be done after we’ve identified what sort of environment we’re currently in.
Click here to see what the current environment is like today:
This is what I’m seeing out of Technology stocks specifically. While there are a few stocks with shorting potential, and some other stocks not listed here worth buying, this is a list specifically focused on only the best risk vs reward opportunities in the direction of the primary trend, which is currently up: [Read more…]
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording November 2017
This is the recording from the November 2017 Conference Call. In this 70 minute video I walk you through what I think are the most important 160 charts in the world. These help me tell the entire story of where money is flowing to and where it is flowing from. We want to be positioned in favorable risk vs reward opportunities going into the end of the year. I think I do a good job of laying out the framework for the current market environment. We talk about stocks, both US and around the world, Commodities including Crude Oil and Gold, Currencies such as US Dollars, Euro, Pound and Canadian Dollars, and of course interest rates and the bond market.
For me it’s a top/down weight-of-the-evidence approach that I think works best. There will be an additional, more stock-specific post to supplement this video that I will be publishing shortly. For now, here is the entire video and slide deck to download:
[Premium] How We’re Managing Risk In This Environment
As you guys know I’ve been pounding the table bullish of stocks for a long time. Not just U.S. stocks, but globally including both developed and emerging markets. This aggressively long approach is nothing new to us. Along the way, however, I’ve tried to point out some of the things we’ve been watching closely as a warning that a bullish thesis is most likely wrong. Again, it’s not so much about how high we think a stock or sector or index can go, but at what point are we wrong? What’s the risk? is the more most important question.
What many investors fail to understand is that we’re not here to be right, we’re only here to make money. There’s a difference. We want to determine where we are wrong prior to even entering into a new investment. In other words, there needs to be somewhere between the price where we buy something and zero where we admit that our thesis was incorrect. To take this process even further, we want to imagine what the overall market environment would look like in the off chance that we are not correct. I say that kind of tongue-in-cheek because as many of you guys already know, I assume that I am wrong every single time and focus my attention on where I am wrong, rather than dreaming of the riches I will have once I hit the next home run. [Read more…]
[Premium] Important Stocks and Updated Risk vs Reward Setups
A wise Egyptian man once taught me, “If you trade the averages, you’ll get average returns”. The media likes to focus on what “The market” is doing today?”. People want to know, “What did the market do today?”. It’s just how we are and how we think. But it’s not the best approach, in my opinion. Far from it.
This is not a stock market, it is a market of stocks. There’s a difference. It’s funny how many people have tried shorting the major US averages over the past couple of years only to see sectors rotating and a majority of the components holding them up. While some sectors go through corrections, another one steps up and leads the averages higher. Sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market. This one has been no different.
Today I want to turn your attention to a group of stocks that I like to include in the Chartbook. These are a group of some of the most important names that do not fall within the category of the Dow Jones Industrial Average or Dow Jones Transportation Average. We’re in the process of doing some updates on the site and will be adding several new workbooks including an Equally-weighted group of charts, Monthly Charts and the Nasdaq30. You’ll see these added very soon. [Read more…]
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