Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Thank you to everyone who responded to this week’s mystery chart.
Most respondents were waiting for more information before getting long or short but did agree that the trend had shifted to sideways.
With that as our backdrop, let’s take a look at this week’s chart.
On this episode of the podcast I’m really excited to bring in Quantitative Researcher Chris Cain. Chris found his love for building trading systems while he was a market maker in the bond market for over 10 years. Today he works with Larry Connors and just published a book called The Alpha Formula that you can purchase at a discounted price at Tradingmarkets.com. (Use the Promo Code: “TAF2020” to get the book at half price!) We laugh during the podcast that Chris is so hardcore about this stuff the he actually teaches a course in Python specifically for traders and building strategies. His goal with these systems is to recognize and take advantage of our human behavior flaws so we go over a bunch of those, which I always think is helpful. He also walks through one of the 4 models and explains how having several uncorrelated strategies increases risk adjusted returns. This was a really fun conversation with one of the smart ones!
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We don’t have bull markets in America without Financials participating. That’s just how it is around here.
I look through a lot of charts, as you guys know, and there are always a few that really stand out and explain the current situation. I’ve pointed out how there is further potential of overhead supply for stocks at these levels, particularly internationally. That means that, for the most part, the market has proven that there are more willing sellers than buyers around here. You can’t see it if you’re just looking at S&Ps and the Dow. But when you go sector by sector and country by country, trust me, it’s there.
So bringing it back to America, Financials are in quite the predicament. You can’t have a success story without an original struggle right? Well this $31 level has been an issue since the epic top in 2007 before the financial crisis: [Read more…]
Today I have a group of charts that I think will help me explain my thought process here. We’re keeping this very simple.
Let’s go! [Read more…]
Two weeks ago we outlined our thesis for near-term weakness in stocks in India and around the globe.
Since then we’ve outlined additional information that seems to support the thesis that the next few weeks, and potentially months, are to be a choppy environment. (Feb 1, Jan 27, Jan 26, and Jan 25).
After some downside follow-through, many are asking: How low can we go?
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I discuss all the reasons why we’re buying bonds right now instead of stocks and commodities. The big point here for me is that it’s not just one chart. There is no single holy grail suggesting we buy bonds. This is a weight of the evidence conclusion. It’s not one chart, it’s hundreds of them all pointing to the exact same thing: Sell stocks and Buy bonds!
[Read more…]
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
This week I saw two different charts floating around that I thought deserved a second look based on how they were presented and what their ultimate conclusion was.
The first has to deal with the underperformance of the Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Index, while the second looks at High Dividend Factor ETFs that have gone off the beaten path.
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For a variety of different factors, we’ve wanted to tactically be selling stocks all week and buying bonds instead, particularly US Treasury and Municipal Bonds. The weight of the evidence has been pointing to a more defensive rotation and out of risk assets. We listen to the market and act accordingly. Anything else would be irresponsible.
To be clear, longer-term uptrends in stocks and indexes globally are still intact, so far. Our goals, however, are to make money this quarter. We’ll worry about next year, next year. We’ll worry about the 3rd and 4th quarters when we get there this summer. For now, as we finished up January we’re now entering what is historically the worst of the “Best 6 Months of the year”, which go from November through April. So stocks going down in February would be perfectly in line with seasonal trends.
With that said, the biggest and most important index, arguably, in the United States, and maybe even the world, just achieved its upside objective. Keep in mind that Technology also represents about a quarter of the entire S&P500 Index: [Read more…]
