Monday was our Members-Only Conference Call for both India and the US (see JC’s video here) and the most overwhelming theme was that Equities are not trending, so what does that mean for us as market participants?
India Index Reconstitution Summary
Twice a year the Nifty Indexes are reconstituted on March 31 and September 30, replacing stocks that don’t fit the criteria with those that do. This past weekend we adjusted our chartbooks to reflect the changes that occurred at the end of the first quarter, so I wanted to write a quick post detailing some of the changes.
Video: Today’s Overhead Supply In Stocks
We hear this term a lot: “Overhead Supply”. But what does that mean exactly?
Well, I’ll tell you what it means to me. When I look at today’s stock market, I see stocks rallying throughout 2017 and running into resistance, or more selling than buying, in January of 2018. After some distribution, stocks rallied once again late into the 3rd quarter last year, only fail and sell off. That was a beautiful sell-off in stocks that many of us enjoyed very much.
Fast forward to 2019 and we’ve had a killer rally in stocks that has brought us back to where this overhead supply party first got started early last year. This is now the 3rd attempt and failure for stocks. And when I say stocks, I don’t just mean the S&P500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average, I’m referring to stocks as an asset class.
In this video, I try and explain what I mean by pointing out the behavior of the Global 100 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Composite Average, Dow Jones Internet Index and the IPO Index. They’re all telling a similar story of “Overhead Supply”. In the future, when I give educational seminars or speak at Universities, I will bring up these charts as excellent examples of the overhead supply dynamics we see quite often in the market, just rarely this clear.
Here is the video in full: [Read more…]
This Chart Tells The Story Best
People love to hear a good story. We have an evolutionary desire to gossip and be told stories even if we know they’re untrue. As Sapiens, it’s important to know this about ourselves. But you know who definitely knows it? The media. And they’re going to use that desire against you every single day for their own profit. They will tell you stories all day every day as long as you’re willing to listen. They’re so thirsty for your attention that they’ll tell you anything just so they can sell ads to their precious sponsors. It’s their job to make the noise. It’s our job to ignore it.
Today, I’m going to show you the chart that actually tells the real story about what is going on in today’s market. I comb through thousands of charts a week and I can tell you for a fact that there is one underlying theme that I’m seeing across the board: Stocks, Sectors and Indexes, and that is the Overhead supply we’ve been stuck below since early last year. [Read more…]
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording May 2019
This is the video recording of the May 2019 Conference Call.
Potential Mean-Reversion Opportunities
When trading against the primary trend, there are a few things we look for to define our risk and raise our probability of success.
[Read more…]
Insurance Stocks Weathering The Storm
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Wednesday’s Mystery Chart is one of my favorite right now, so thank you everyone for your feedback and participation.
I received a lot of answers, but most of you were skeptical of the breakout and wanted to see more before getting involved. A few others wanted to be long with a tight stop and few, if any, were sellers.
With that as our backdrop, let’s get into it.
The Trend Is Not Our Friend
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
The trend is your friend…but what do we do if there is no trend?
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