Mid and small-caps have been hit hard over the last month, so I wanted to do a quick update post on how we should be approaching these indexes over the short-term.
[Premium] Monthly Chart Changes
September has been a month where the market’s experienced some sharp moves to the downside, so I want to use this post to review what we spoke about last month and provides some context around any changes that have occurred since then. [Read more…]
All Star Interviews Season 2, Episode 7: Kim Sokoloff, CMT & Trader
Kim Sokoloff is a trader’s trader. Whenever I see her she is always telling me about her trading day, what she was buying and what she was selling. I have a huge appreciation for the passion she brings to the markets on a daily basis. We all have different time horizons, some longer-term and some shorter-term. Kim is concerned with what stocks are doing over a a few days. For her, “long-term” is only a couple of weeks. In this episode, Kim walks us through her morning routine and thought process throughout the trading day. We’ve had analysts, money managers and traders on the podcast, but in this conversation we really dive deep into what it’s like trading every day from an apartment in lower Manhattan. I really enjoyed this discussion with a very active swing trader and practicing technician. [Read more…]
Technology Is The Big Tell Here!
There’s always a tell. Before the most recent rally we’ve seen in U.S. stocks since August, Aerospace & Defense stocks were breaking out. It was hard to be bearish equities with this A&D group, an important part of the Industrials sector, and a leader among leaders, coming out of an 8-month base to new all-time highs. Also, this came within the context of a tremendous uptrend, so an upside resolution was perfectly normal. That breakout was telling for stocks as an asset class. Today I think it’s Technology. What this sector does here should tell us a lot about this market.
After the new weightings, Technology is going to represent 20% of the S&P500, which is still a large chunk, despite being cut from 26% of the S&P500 pre-adjustments. It’s funny, strong markets do splits, not reverse splits. I’ll take this as a positive for Tech. And if it’s not, then I think we have a problem. That’s what we’re looking at here today. [Read more…]
[Premium] Our Risk Management Strategy For The U.S. Stock Market
We have been pounding the table to be buying U.S. stocks and ignoring the bearish rhetoric coming from almost everyone these days. I have never seen a stock market crash where people have been this prepared for it. I get an email a day warning me about this coming historic crash. We’ve happily taken the other side of this nonsense and continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher, much higher in fact.
However, the market doesn’t care what JC thinks and is going to do whatever the heck it wants. That’s life. So ahead of any serious correction, we want to identify levels where we would start to become much more neutral towards equities. Tightening stops, being less aggressive from the buy side, owning put protection and strategies like these are most appropriate under these conditions. Today, I’m going to lay out what it’s going to take for us to approach the market from a more neutral to bearish perspective: [Read more…]
The Two Most Important Charts In India
Last week was our Members-Only Conference Call, where we discussed what we’re seeing in Equities, Commodities, and Currencies. During our discussion around Equities there were two themes that came up over and over again due to their impact on the overall market’s direction: weakness in the Financial Services sector and small-cap under-performance.
Given the mixed signals we continue to get from this market, I wanted to share my thoughts on these themes and get feedback on what you all are seeing out there. [Read more…]
Communications Services Sector Changes
This week the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) expanded the Telecom Services sector to include Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology components, with it being renamed the Communications Services sector next Friday, September 28th.
In this post I want to highlight the major changes to the sector classifications, chart the new sector (using the back-filled IXCPR Index), and then finish up with some of the components that are the most actionable. State Street, which runs the popular Sector SPDR ETFs, has created a comprehensive document on these changes that I’d encourage you to read in full to understand all the nuances surrounding these changes.
All Star Interviews Season 2, Episode 6: Ryan Detrick of LPL Financial
In this episode I asked my friend Ryan Detrick to come talk about the quantitative work he does as part of the technical analysis he provides for advisors at LPL Financial. I have been following his work for years and have gotten to know Ryan well during that time. I was really looking forward to this conversation and it exceeded all of my expectations. Ryan does an excellent job of using basic mathematics to debunk popular myths told to investors about the market. We discuss the impact of a rising rate environment on U.S. stocks, the Yield Curve, Stock Market Seasonality and some of the things he is currently seeing in the market. This is a can’t-miss episode! [Read more…]
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