Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
There is more money being allocated to risk assets than there are risk assets to feed that demand.
It’s not about the Fed, or the Trump or the COVID.
Prices go up when there’s more demand than supply for assets. And that’s what we see.
Here’s exhibit A. Crude Oil is making new 7-year highs.
And why do you think that is happening? Is it because there’s more supply of oil than there is demand for it? Or is it because there is more demand than supply? [Read more…]
This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
Those angry little gold buggers are finally starting to put some points on the board.
The lack of participation in Gold since last Spring has been something to witness. Every commodity on earth has skyrocketed, except for gold and other precious metals.
My argument is that maybe it’s behaved that way because it’s not a commodity. Maybe it’s more of a currency, something I’ve always argued.
Right or wrong, call it whatever you want, it has done poorly since last summer of 2020.
And with the Dollar as strong as it’s been, Gold has really taken a beating.
But not lately….
Can we call it a comeback?
You see, with new highs in the US Dollar this month, Gold did NOT make new lows. That bullish divergence is the first sign of life we’ve seen out of this thing for a while.
Here we’re looking at the US Dollar (inverted) using the $UDN ETF to help visualize it. And below that is the price of Gold, NOT making lower lows: [Read more…]
This is our ASC Research Q4 2021 Playbook.
One of the first things you learn in Technical Analysis is that markets are fractal.
That means that you’ll find the same human behaviors (i.e. price patterns) whether you’re looking at daily timeframes, weekly time frames or even intraday (e.g. 10-min or 30-min candles).
This is a concept that Brian Shannon has done an amazing job of highlighting throughout his career. Brian has been an inspiration to me since about 2005, which is pretty unbelievable to think about. Since then we’ve become friends and go skiing together and all that. It’s pretty cool how life works sometimes.
Anyway, the idea behind “Multiple Timeframes”, which is literally part of the title of Brian’s book (go buy it), is to use this reality of “markets being fractal” to our advantage.
That can mean a lot of different things to different people.
For us, in what we do here at All Star Charts is, we start with Weekly and Monthly time horizons. That’s where it all begins. [Read more…]
One thing unique about the market is that the game is never over. There aren’t four 15-min quarters or two 20-min halves like in sports.
In those endeavors there is a beginning and an end.
You know who won (or who tied in some cases). But the match is over, and there will be another one in a few days or a few months, depending on the sport.
In the market, it never ends. This can cause issues psychologically, so it’s something we should all be aware of and keep in mind.
But if you ask me, currently the bulls are scoring a lot more points. This is the first time we’ve seen that since Q1 this year, when the bears started running up the score.
Look at the S&P500 break out to new all-time highs relative to US Treasury Bonds. [Read more…]
