Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by Tom Bruni
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Sector rotation. Sector rotation. Sector rotation. I probably sound like a broken record at this point, but today’s theme is once again…sector rotation. This time it’s Transports being helped back to their January highs by an improving Airline sector. We’ve spoken about the relative strength in Railroads and Trucking stocks, and acknowledged the relative under-performance in Airlines two months ago, but the data has slowly shifted.
by Tom Bruni
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Over the weekend as I was doing my run through the entire S&P 500, I noticed some emerging strength in areas that aren’t quite as sexy as Medical Devices or Railroads (kidding). Instead, what I found was a number of potential long opportunities in the Real Estate, Utilities, and Telecom sectors. While the long-term relative performance of these sectors is nothing to write home about, as I explained in my Agribusiness post, I still think it’s important to point out strength on an absolute basis because it contributes to the weight of the evidence and provides value to those who may have a portfolio approach that includes those areas of the market.
With that said, let’s take a quick look at what I’m seeing.
Logistics and package delivery services provider $UPS got caught in the volatility-triggered downdraft of late January and early February of this year. It has spent the remaining part of the year forming a base and is now showing signs of filling the yawning earnings gap from February 1. We’ve got a play to take advantage of this gap fill and a likely return to new all-time highs. [Read more…]
by JC
This is only the second episode of The Money Game Podcast that I’ve recorded with Phil and I’m already learning a ton. The idea behind these conversations is to help make us more aware of our bad habits driven by our cognitive behavior flaws. In this episode, Phil and I talk about Loss Aversion and the fact that as investors, and in life, we are motivated more by our fears than we are by our potential to win. This is an incredibly complicated topic so I think it’s important to start this conversation early in this Money Game Podcast series.
Here is the second episode in full: [Read more…]
by Tom Bruni
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
On May 1st we spoke about seasonality and why the traditional “Sell In May and Go Away talk is a great headline, but not a great investment strategy this year. While most think that seasonality data is useful to position ahead of what are typically weak or strong periods, we find that the real signal occurs when the market does not adhere to its historical patterns. Now that we’re a bit more than half way through the seasonally weak May-October period, we thought it’d be helpful to look at the market’s performance thus far and see what it could possibly mean for the rest of the year.
Excuse my cheeky blog post title — we’re bullish on United Technologies $UTX.
Consistent with our bullish stance on US equities over the near term, we continue to want to err on the long side. And we want to be in the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors.
One of those is $UTX and we’ve got a plan to play for a retest of all-time highs with an eventual breakout to significantly higher levels. [Read more…]
by JC
I live in a funny world where I can just write some things on my phone or computer and people all over the world begin commenting on it. These conversations can last for months, even years. Those who know me understand that I try to do my very best everyday to look at the market as nothing but letters and math. It shouldn’t matter whether we’re long Apple or short soybean futures.
Some assets strike a cord with people and make them feel differently. There is usually a popular figure involved or hot product and sometimes even conspiracy theories. It’s fascinating to watch. Gold is definitely one of those. The crazies come out whenever you mention gold, bull or bear doesn’t matter. Natural Gas used to be like that 12-15 years ago, but not since it lost 90% of its value over the past decade. This one is the bitcoin of energy.
Over the years, things like Apple and Tesla have had some cult followings in their stocks too. But most recently it’s been $TSLA and the fact that they get to gossip about elon musk to get them away from writing about trump every day. Everyone wins. I saw an opportunity about two and a half months ago to purchase shares of $TSLA after the completion of, what I felt, was a failed breakdown, which in my experience often leads to very fast rallies in the opposite direction. [Read more…]
by JC
This is the video recording of the August 2018 Conference Call. After reviewing approximately 5000 charts from all over the world, these are my conclusions.
First of all, there are exponentially more bullish looking stocks than bearish ones. This goes for both U.S. Stocks and those from all over the world. The Credit Markets are confirming this bullish outlook for stocks with risk appetite coming from the largest market in the world.
There are plenty of opportunities to make money this quarter and I tried my best to lay them out in an easy to follow process. Here is the video in full: [Read more…]
