One of the things that often gets underrated is the power of simplicity. What’s wrong with only looking at price and focusing in only on what matters most? I get that you love your moving averages and candlesticks and all sorts of momentum indicators. But the most important indicator is still price. So that’s what we’re going to look at today using OHLC Bar Charts.
Three Historic Breakouts In The U.S. Stock Market Today
When you rip through 5000 charts a week you start to notice a few things. One thing that has caught my attention recently is the fact that there stocks just now breaking out of 20 year bases. These aren’t some irrelevant micro-cap companies either, these are stocks that are literally representing some of the most important industries in America. It’s hard to ignore these developments and I think it points to further strength in the U.S. Stock Market this year.
Stocks aren’t breaking down from major tops. We saw so much of that happening throughout 2007 that it became almost impossible not to be short equities in 2008. Today we are still seeing the exact opposite: breakouts from major bases, multi-decade bases in some cases. Today I’m going to point out 3 very important stocks that are just now coming out of historic consolidations. [Read more…]
Chart Summit 2018 Live Saturday January 27th – Register Now!
Chart Summit 2018 is finally here. We could not be more excited for this event after the unbelievable experience we had last year! In January of 2017, I called up a bunch of my smartest friends and put on the first ever 100% virtual conference on Technical Analysis, and it was FREE! We had over 10,000 attendees from over 100 different countries. The feedback I received immediately after the event was like nothing I had ever seen before. I couldn’t believe it.
If you missed last year’s event, you can still watch the videos of those presentations here and I highly encourage you to do so. We had traders like Peter Brandt, Brian Shannon and Joe Fahmy explaining their approach and best ideas. Top Wall Street Analysts like Ari Wald, Jonathan Krinsky and legend Gail Dudack showed the world how they look at markets and what sorts of things they were showing their buy side customers at the time.
This was an amazing event from an educational perspective, but also provided the audience with very actionable market commentary. This year, we are fully committed to bringing together a similar level of talent and expertise to see if we can even come close to the success we had a year ago.
Registration for this one of a kind event is Free and you can register here: [Read more…]
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording January 2018
This is the video recording of the January Conference Call. It’s our first of the year and I just want to reiterate that we want to forget everything we thought we knew last year and approach the current market environment with an open mind. To stay true to ourselves, we want to start from the top and work our way all the way down, responsibly weighing all of the evidence along the way. Beginning with a global macro perspective, we’ll then break things down to the Indexes, then the Sectors & Industry Groups and finish with the stock ideas themselves.
I think there is an overwhelming theme of strength in natural resources, particularly metals and energy. The would be a consistent with a weaker U.S. Dollar and higher Interest Rate environment. Here is the video in full where I lay out my best case for the coming weeks and months:
About That Uptrend In Small-caps
All-time highs across the board in Small-caps these days. Some are in shock. I personally just don’t understand why stocks that are in uptrends going up is anything outside of perfectly normal? I would argue that any other result is what we should consider unusual. If the market teaches us one thing is that trends are much more likely to continue than to completely reverse.
In September I put out a post about small-caps breaking out of year long bases. If you recall, at the time, the sentiment around the market was about how high stocks were and how they could not go much further. My argument at that point was the exact opposite. Small-cap stocks had done nothing for an entire year. To suggest the stock market was too stretched was irresponsible, in my opinion. Not only did we want to be long stocks, we wanted to be “very aggressively long” equities. [Read more…]
[Premium] Members-Only Conference Call Wednesday January 17th at 7PM ET
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
We’ve been extremely bullish towards US and Global Stocks as they remain in strong uptrends on any sort of intermediate-term time horizon. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. We will go over a multi-timeframe approach on this conference call where we will start with the longer-term and then work our way down to more short-term to intermediate-term investing ideas. This will also include other assets like the US Dollar, Euro, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Interest Rates.
I’ll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there and how we want to manage risk moving forward! This month’s Conference Call will be held on Wednesday January 17th at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details: [Read more…]
Podcast Season 1 – Ep 16 – Joseph Fahmy, Managing Director of Zor Capital
Joe Fahmy is a trader whose work I’ve respected for nearly a decade when I was first introduced to him and his investing style. What makes Joe special in my opinion is his awareness of when to press his long positions and be aggressive, while at the same time incorporating a more neutral or defensive approach whenever the market dictates. This discipline is not always easy, but he does it well. Joe and I have known each other for a long time and the conversations we’ve had over meals or drinks is a large part of the inspiration to start this podcast. Joe Fahmy is one of the premier voices for the importance of relative strength analysis throughout an investing process. In this podcast episode we discuss the current U.S. Stock Market environment, sentiment and some select areas where he is currently seeing rotation and strength. This was a great conversations with someone who I consider to be one of the smartest guys in the room! I hope you enjoy. [Read more…]
[Chart Of The Week] Natural Gas Stocks Break Out Of Major Consolidation!
It’s a new year and we’re already starting to see brand new trends emerging. One area that I’ve preferred to stay away from for a long time has been the energy and natural resource space, which just so happen to be 2 of my favorite areas to be long heading into 2018. Today I want to point out the major reversal in Natural Gas stocks that I believe will catch many by surprise as we progress into the first quarter and likely beyond. [Read more…]
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