We’re in the middle of Summer and markets are quiet, almost too quiet. It’s easy to overthink things this time of the year and get lost in noise that is mostly made up to fill space. There isn’t much going on right now for market participants, so it can only be worse for people whose job it is to report on it. Headlines that would normally fall to the bottom of the stack rise towards the top, just out of sheer necessity. The problem is they don’t differentiate between what is important and what is just relatively important today because there’s nothing else going on. That irresponsible behavior suggests to me that it is best to tune it all out completely. It’s not worth it. [Read more…]
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording July 2017
Two weeks ago I put out my Q3 Playbook, so you guys know how I feel about most things. Not much has changed in July. So for this month’s call, I wanted to open it up to whatever you guys wanted to talk about. During the first half of the video there are some points that I definitely wanted to make sure I got across. The rest of the time I just answered questions, many of which were very good and relevant to today’s market environment. You can watch the entire video here and download the PDF of the slide deck. [Read more…]
Is This Really The End Of Retail As We Know It?
Have you heard that story yet about how Amazon is destroying traditional retailers?
Let me ask you: Is this actually the case? Is this it for retailers? It’s over?
Fortunately we have actual data that can help us answer this question. We’re not making guesses based on estimates that will be revised multiple times over the next few quarters. As Technicians we know what is actually taking place between the buyers and sellers for these stocks. It’s up to us to make the correct interpretations, of course, but that price data is the only reliable data in existence when it comes to retail stocks.
This is the infamous chart of the S&P Retail Index, which is equally weighted. So remember that in this index, Amazon does not represent a large percentage of the overall weighting. Each retail stock, about 94 of them, are weighted approximately the same across the board. [Read more…]
[Premium] Retail Stocks: The Good Ones and The Really Bad Ones!
Have you heard that story yet about how Amazon is destroying traditional retailers?
Let me ask you: Is this actually the case? Is this it for retailers? It’s over?
Fortunately we have actual data that can help us answer this question. We’re not making guesses based on estimates that will be revised 20 times over the next few quarters. As Technicians we know what is actually taking place between the buyers and sellers for these stocks. It’s up to us to make the correct interpretations, of course, but that price data is the only reliable data in existence when it comes to retail stocks.
This is the infamous chart of the S&P Retail Index, which is equally weighted. So in this chart, Amazon does not represent a large percentage of the index. Each retail stock, about 94 of them, are weighted approximately the same across the board. [Read more…]
[Premium] Members-Only Conference Call Wednesday July 19th at 7PM ET
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
We’ve been bullish towards US and Global Stocks once again since May. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. What we’re seeing in the bond market, however, is suggesting interest rates are still heading higher. The implications here for assets like Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and the US Dollar is also important to recognize.
I’ll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there! This month’s Conference Call will be held on Wednesday July 19th at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details: [Read more…]
[Chart Of The Week] Chemical Stocks Rip To All-time Highs
Chemical stocks are breaking out to all-time highs. It’s not just one or two of them either, they are doing this collectively as a unit. When we see broad-based participation out of a group, it’s not something we want to ignore. Today I want to smooth things out and look at this group from an Equally-weighted basis. While monster stocks like Dow Chemical and Du Pont break out to new all-time highs, the question we want to ask is whether or not it’s just them or are the rest of them joining along? [Read more…]
[Premium] Deep Dive Analysis On U.S. Chemical Stocks
With Chemical Stocks breaking out to all-time highs, I can’t think of a better time than now to do a deep dive analysis on what is going on in the space. You guys know how much I’ve liked the Chemicals for a while now. This has been a monster since early last year and then picked up again after last summer.
When we talk about the Materials Sector, Chemicals aren’t exactly the first thing that might come to mind. But if you dig deep into the Materials space, it is clear that the Chemicals are the leadership sub-group within the broader sector. Today we’re going to dive in and see what is really going on here. [Read more…]
[Premium] Deep Dive Analysis On The Consumer Discretionary Sector
Today we’re going to focus on what is taking place specifically in the Consumer Discretionary space. This is one of the largest sectors in the S&P500 with respects to the number of components, but the differences between all of the stocks in the group really stand out. While we are seeing some strength in Online Retail and some of the Homebuilders, the Apparel and Traditional Retailer space look terrible. So we don’t just want to be buying this sector blindly. I think we need to pick and choose our spots.
In this report I wanted to do a deeper dive into Consumer Discretionary to try and determine the direction of the next major moves and how to best take advantage of it: [Read more…]
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