In our cyclical portfolio, we are shifting our global equity exposure, shortening the maturity of our fixed income exposure and getting out of the way of the break down in gold.
[Options] A Bull Phase for Enphase Energy $ENPH?
Eventually, even thick skulls like mine get the point.
Pretty much all summer long, the team here at All Star Charts has been mentioning Enphase Energy $ENPH as a strong outperformer that is on the verge of a potential epic breakout. During today’s internal Analyst meeting, the team agreed that now is finally the time to get involved.
JC and I did a video on a possible trade in $ENPH ahead of today’s Fed Reserve Interest Rates announcement. We did just get into it moments ago. Enjoy this video to get a great idea of why we like this trade and how we’ll play it:
A Bull Phase for Enphase Energy? @allstarcharts https://t.co/INbp6CH827
— Sean McLaughlin, NLD 📈 (@chicagosean) September 21, 2022
[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key Takeaway: With last month’s rally behind us and the June lows quickly approaching, investor attitudes are beginning to sour. Bears on the II survey now outnumber bulls for the first time since mid-July, and the Consensus bulls continue to decline. Despite this pessimism, investors have been slow to take action. They have kept equity exposure elevated and equity ETFs actually saw $20B of inflows last week (after the two preceding weeks saw $11B of outflows). Increased pessimism at this point is the most significant sentiment risk for stocks. Investors (and their portfolios) have been bruised by a perceived lack of alternatives to stocks but with short-term bond yields now at their highest levels that could be changing.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Safe Havens Haven’t Been Safe
Anything can happen over the final 3+ months of the year, but so far 2022 has been a disappointing year on many fronts for most investors. The portfolio drawdown experienced by the average investor over the first six months of the year exceeded any previous 2-quarter decline in the past 45 years. The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio is on pace for its worst year since before World War II. One of the most challenging developments may be that typical safe havens haven’t offered much of a refuge. Our custom safe haven index (a blend of exposure to gold, long-term bonds and the Japanese Yen) has moved steadily lower all year and is now in drawdown approaching 30%. A logical support level is just ahead but there is little indication at this point that it will hold. It has been a risk off environment but not an environment with strength from risk off assets. This has contributed to poor sentiment and kept investors more exposed to equities than perhaps they would otherwise feel comfortable with. Despite weakness in stocks it has been easier for investors to stand pat than move into other assets where risks seem so well defined (higher rates for bonds, inflation for cash). Bad moods persist, but capitulation remains elusive.
Chart of the Day: The Time To Buy
[Premium] Mid-Month Conference Call Video Recording September 2022
This is the video recording of the September 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.
We discussed:
Dollar Bulls Win Again
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US Dollar Index $DXY is on cruise control with nothing ahead but an open road.
The few obstacles that stood in its way are falling to the wayside. That’s right – the handful of commodity currencies that have refused to roll over during the past six months are beginning to slip.
Before we get to these fresh breakdowns, let’s set the scene with two currencies that have been anything but resilient – the euro and the British pound.
[PLUS] Weekly Macro Perspectives – Fed & Friends: We Won’t Back Down
Key Takeaways:
- Inflation fight being waged on a global basis
- Rate expectations have been unanchored
- Effects of tighter policy already being felt
Higher rates and tighter central banks are a global phenomenon this year. In fact, the Fed is one of a dozen central banks meeting this week and a majority are expected to raise rates, again. Both the breadth and intensity of rate hikes are pretty much unprecedented. That doesn’t even get into quantitative tightening in the US. The Fed’s balance sheet is 10-times as large as it was two decades ago and has only begun to shrink (the 26-week change just turned negative last month).
Expectations for the Fed are drifting higher. Futures have now priced in 100 basis points of tightening this year than the Fed thought would be necessary when it released its last dot plot (in June). Tomorrow’s updated economic projections and expected path of rates will receive at least as much scrutiny as an actual rate hike that gets announced.
Stocks are struggling for traction, which is what typically happens when the Fed is aggressive and the housing market is already experiencing a hard landing. The remainder of the economy is likely not far behind.
Follow the Flow (09-19-2022)
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.
And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.
Then we flip through our list of stocks flashing unusual activity and pick the best setups using many of the same technical filters we do for our other scans.
And, just like that, we’ll follow the money flow and fatten our own pockets along with some of the world’s most powerful financial institutions.
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