This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
Where To Prospect for Strength
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The big news in commodities this week is gold breaking down to its lowest level since early 2020.
I recently outlined what a downside resolution for the shiny yellow rock could mean for inflation and the entire commodity space.
Spoiler alert: a fresh leg lower from gold doesn’t bode well for raw materials or the prospects of sustained inflation.
Nevertheless, inflation hasn’t gone anywhere, at least not yet.
As long as that’s the case, we expect commodities to see further upside, albeit not in unison. The broad rally witnessed at the end of 2020 into 2021 is unlikely to be repeated in the near future.
Regardless, stellar buying opportunities will present themselves.
We aren’t going to let the bifurcated nature of commodity markets stop us from catching the next explosive rally.
In other words, the supply and demand dynamics for copper don’t affect our decision to trade soybeans or wheat.
Instead, let’s trade what is in front of us – even as concerns of a global economic slowdown accentuate differences among the various contracts.
International Hall of Famers 09-16-2022)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
This week’s upside surprise in inflation is raising the stakes for next week’s FOMC meeting. While the 10-year T-Note yield is still just below its June peak, yields at the shorter-end of the curve are breaking out to the upside. Leading the way is the 1-year Treasury yield, which crossed above 4.0% this week for the first time in 15 years. Even more pronounced is the pace of its ascent. One year ago, the yield on 1-year Treasuries was just 7 basis points (0.07%). That makes for the largest year-over-year change in yields since the early 1980’s. Investors are unaccustomed to yields moving this high and this fast and that is disrupting both financial markets and the economy. Continued upward momentum in yields could leave the macro situation vulnerable to further deterioration and increase downside risks to equities. Stocks do the best in periods of sustained strength and low volatility, neither of which is present at the moment.
[Premium] Details For September 2022 Mid-Month Conference Call
These are the registration details for our live mid-month conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
Our next Live Call will be held on Tuesday September 20th at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.
Here are the details for Tuesday night: [Read more…]
Yields Pack a Punch
From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley
Interest rates have resumed their ascent following a brief summer pause. And, in recent weeks, their climb has accelerated.
Aside from lower bond prices, what do higher rates mean for other assets, such as stocks and commodities?
It might seem like a simple question. But its relevance is undeniable given the current market conditions.
We’ve been vocal about the cyclical areas of the market that benefit most from a rising rate environment – think commodities, energy, materials, and banks. We’ve put out plenty of trade ideas in those areas.
But not all risk assets enjoy a tailwind when yields rise.
Higher rates mean downside pressure for long-duration assets in general, not just bonds. This also includes growth stocks!
[PLUS] Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche
This is the video recording of the September 15th, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.
09/15/22 2:00 PM ET [Read more…]
Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Playing Possum
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Something was getting into our grapes.
That much we knew. We could see the evidence in the mess under our arbor every morning. Our dog was also aware of its presence. But we didn’t know exactly what “it” was – until Friday.
Rather than waiting patiently by the back screen door, the dog was crouched as if he was in starting blocks. He was ready to launch himself onto the scene.
He sprinted to the grape arbor, and after a brief glance at the vines, he raced along the fence. Within moments, he had his prey, shook it vigorously (as he has done in the past), and dropped a limp body. I walked over to get my first glimpse of the intruder.
Laying motionless at the dog’s feet was a not insubstantial possum.
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