This is the video recording of the December 2nd Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche
12/02/21 3:00 PM ET [Read more…]
Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Changing Course in Choppy Waters
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
There’s no shortage of headlines this week — a potpourri of potentially market-moving developments.
And boy, have markets moved! Of course, these market gyrations are probably not quite for the reasons the headline writers have proposed. But we can leave that discussion for another day…
Today, I want to talk about when to change course and when to sit tight.
Let’s consider the recent comments from Fed Chair Powell on inflation and apply a lesson I learned when sailing on the waters of Lake Michigan.
[Video] Options Trade of the Week w/ Sean & JC | Selling An $IWM Iron Condor
We have a new Options trade up this week.
We’re selling an $IWM December 31 (weekly) Iron Condor. We’ll be short the 210 puts and 235 calls, while protecting the position $5 away in both direction with long 205 puts and 240 calls. This entire spread can be put on for about a $1.70 credit.
Check out our short video with the thought process behind these trades: [Read more…]
[Premium] Monthly Charts Strategy Session December 2021
This is the video recording of our December 1, 2021 Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
The Short Report (12-01-2021)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.
Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.
We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.
The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too.
We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics.
Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we’re also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.
Treasury Spreads Tank
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Treasury yield spreads are contracting.
Inflation has been the talk of the town in recent weeks. But, now that the Federal Reserve has finally joined the chorus, the market seems to be headed in a different direction. At least over the near term.
Short rates are holding up just fine, but the longer end of the curve has been under serious pressure.
We’ve been closely monitoring long-duration rates for signs of further weakness. As we write, the 30-year is violating its summer lows, and the 10-year is testing a critical level of interest around 1.40%.
The bulls really need these levels to hold. If they don’t, we’d better get used to the recent volatility–because it’s likely to get worse.
Let’s take a deeper look! [Read more…]
[PLUS] Market Update
Stocks finished a volatile month of November in downbeat fashion, with breadth deteriorating and downside momentum expanding. Global equities bore the brunt of the weakness, though there was plenty of it to go around. Just one month removed from a new high in the All Country World Index (ACWI), a quarter of the country-level indexes that make up that composite finished November at new 12-month lows and only 10% were above their 50-day averages. Domestically, sector-level price, breadth and momentum trends showed a degree of weakness that in the past has been associated with index-level drawdowns of 7% or more and yet the S&P 500 finished November less than 3% from it’s all-time high.
[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key Takeaway: The bulls came out expecting strength but were served a healthy dose of volatility. What on paper is a historically favorable season has turned out to be quite the opposite. New highs quickly fell to the wayside and into the rearview mirror as participation crumbled beneath the surface. In the wake, investor optimism is now accompanied by a sobering caution. The need for repair beneath the surfaces is great for both domestic and international equities, and is necessary to re-build investor confidence. For now, there are no significant signs of pessimism emerging. But volatility and pessimism can be dangerous dancing partners, each leading the other to the edge of the dance floor.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Investors’ Love Of Equities Undiminished
Investors continue to pile into equities. YTD ETF flows through November show equity funds attracting nearly $600 billion of inflows, with two-thirds of this heading toward US equities. Bond fund inflows are just shy of $200 billion. Commodities remain relatively unloved, seeing outflows on a YTD basis but actually recording modest inflows for the month of November.
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