Click here to sign up for our free “Chart of the Week”

All Star Charts

Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets

No-Man’s Land

by

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Plenty of stocks continue to show relative strength through the recent volatility. We still want to be buying these leaders.

And plenty of stocks continue to underperform, having already violated their year-to-date ranges to the downside. Those are the names we want to be looking at to short.

But most stocks are simply in “no-man’s land” right now.

Some were rejected at their year-to-date highs. Others broke out and quickly failed. It doesn’t matter how they got there. What matters is they’re now “back in the box” and facing the very same overhead supply levels they’ve faced for much of 2021.

It looked as if markets were making progress earlier this month. But it turns out most of these new highs were — dare I say —transitory?

Let’s take a look at financials, using the group as a case study for how we want to approach all the range-bound patterns we see out there.

[Read more…]

[Options] Back in the Box

by

I got all excited when Russell 2000 — as measured by $IWM — broke higher out of the 8-9 month range back in early November. To me, that felt like a big sign that stocks on the whole were about to go on a big bullish run into year-end.

Well, the sad trombone has been played and the breakout was short-lived. And as you can see from this chart, $IWM in recent weeks has completely retraced the breakout and has fallen right back into the middle of the previous range:

Man, what a letdown — for the bulls.

But us options traders over here smell an opportunity! [Read more…]

Commodity-Centric Currencies Slide

by

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

As we near the close of another month, crude oil is once again front and center.

At the end of October, black gold was ripping to new seven-year highs while interest rates rose and cyclical stocks kicked back into gear. 

Today, this picture has dramatically changed. 

Crude oil is currently about 20% off its highs, as prices have collapsed back below our risk level.

[Read more…]

[PLUS] Portfolio Perspectives – Dynamic Portfolio Management

by

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

With volatility on the rise and increased evidence of fissures beneath the surface of the market, we have reduced equity exposure in our Tactical Opportunity portfolio. The deterioration at this point has not been significant enough to warrant reducing equity exposure in our Cyclical portfolio, though we have made some changes there as well to stay in harmony with the relative leadership trends we are seeing both in the US and globally. 

[Read more…]

Follow The Flow (11-29-2021)

by

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.

Then we flip through our list of stocks flashing unusual activity and pick the best setups using many of the same technical filters we do for our other scans. And just like that, we’ll follow the money flow and fatten our own pockets along with some of the world’s most powerful financial institutions.

[Read more…]

[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes & Breadth Trends

by

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Cyclical rally needs to prove its strength. New lows and expanding downside volume suggests more fissures beneath the surface. Focus on Value Line Geometric Index for evidence that downside risks are building.

  • Financials sector has continued to slip in our relative strength rankings, falling to its lowest level in over a year and dropping out of the leadership group.
  • Consumer Staples remain toward the bottom of the overall rankings, but have been the top-ranked sector on a short-term basis and we are seeing evidence of improving trends at the industry group level across market capitalization levels. 
  • Large-cap health care is rising in the rankings, but this strength is not echoed at the mid-cap or small-cap level (or even on an equal-weight basis at the large-cap level)

[Read more…]

Under The Hood (11-29-2021)

by

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to our latest “Under The Hood” column, where we’ll cover all the action for the week ended November 26, 2021. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our “Minor Leaguers” column.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Watch this video for a “behind the scenes” look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’s a lot of overlap.

[Read more…]

Recent Posts

Tag Cloud

$AAPL $CL_F $DIA $DX_F $EEM $FXE $GC_F $GLD $IWM $ng_f $QQQ $si_F $SLV $SPX $SPY $TLT $tran $UUP $XLB $XLE $XLF $XLI $XLP $XLU $XLV $XLY djia es_f eurusd ewz fxi fxy gdx HG_f iyt kre mdy rut tnx ung usdjpy uso xlk zb_f zn_f
Real Time Analytics